Because we can never get enough of this discussion
I did a simple analysis using the All Pac 12 team - 1st, 2nd and HM all in one bucket to identify players who were strong contributors to Cal since 2011. I did not include STs recipients
There were 26 in total with a handful being multiple time winners
Then I wanted to compared them to their rivals star rankings and finally to the total recruits by ratings
Here's the list:
Aaron Tipoti - 3 stars
Matt Summers Gavin - 4 stars
Isi Sofele - 3 stars
Anthony Miller - 3 stars
Marvin Jones - 4 stars
DJ Holt - 3 stars
Justin Cheadle - 3 stars
Sean Cattouse - 3 stars
DJ Campbell - 3 stars
Trevor Guyton - 3 stars
Mychal Kendricks - 3 stars
Mitchell Schwartz - 3 stars
Steve Williams - 4 stars
Avery Sebastian - 4 stars
Chris McCain - 4 stars
Josh Hill - 2 stars
Keenan Allen - 5 stars
Brian Schwenke - 3 stars
Bryce Treggs - 4 stars
Deandre Coleman - 4 star
Daniel Lasco - 3 stars
Austin Clark - 2 stars
Chris Borrayo - 3 stars
Michael Barton - 4 stars
Jared Goff - 4 stars
Stephen Anderson - 2 stars
By % of all recruits 2007 to 2013 which comprises the time period made up by the honerees:
2 or worse stars = 13% of recruits
3 stars = 57% of all recruits
4 or more stars = 30% of all recruits
How did that reflect to the star ratings?
Honorees:
2 stars = 12%
3 stars = 50%
4+ = 38%
Thus, in the recent past as it reflects on just Cal's recruits as judged by Rivals and by our coaches ability to develop them, 4 stars are likely to slightly outperform while 2 stars surprisingly hold their own. Net net, stars matter (and not simply because of this analysis but based on more statistically relevant ones) but not THAT much. I didn't have time to break it down but a couple of things stuck out at me while doing this:
Our best recruiting classes on paper were 2010 and 2011 but those clearly underperformed. Stars seem to matter less with OL - We had several 4 star recruits and only one earned AP12 honors. BTW, that data point is backed up by NFL numbers correlating to OL. HOWEVER, I suspect that is changing. Kids are getting coached better earlier and scouting has gotten better (not just about big early) any more.
Any ways, don't fret 2 stars, root for 4 and 5 stars is my conclusion.
I did a simple analysis using the All Pac 12 team - 1st, 2nd and HM all in one bucket to identify players who were strong contributors to Cal since 2011. I did not include STs recipients
There were 26 in total with a handful being multiple time winners
Then I wanted to compared them to their rivals star rankings and finally to the total recruits by ratings
Here's the list:
Aaron Tipoti - 3 stars
Matt Summers Gavin - 4 stars
Isi Sofele - 3 stars
Anthony Miller - 3 stars
Marvin Jones - 4 stars
DJ Holt - 3 stars
Justin Cheadle - 3 stars
Sean Cattouse - 3 stars
DJ Campbell - 3 stars
Trevor Guyton - 3 stars
Mychal Kendricks - 3 stars
Mitchell Schwartz - 3 stars
Steve Williams - 4 stars
Avery Sebastian - 4 stars
Chris McCain - 4 stars
Josh Hill - 2 stars
Keenan Allen - 5 stars
Brian Schwenke - 3 stars
Bryce Treggs - 4 stars
Deandre Coleman - 4 star
Daniel Lasco - 3 stars
Austin Clark - 2 stars
Chris Borrayo - 3 stars
Michael Barton - 4 stars
Jared Goff - 4 stars
Stephen Anderson - 2 stars
By % of all recruits 2007 to 2013 which comprises the time period made up by the honerees:
2 or worse stars = 13% of recruits
3 stars = 57% of all recruits
4 or more stars = 30% of all recruits
How did that reflect to the star ratings?
Honorees:
2 stars = 12%
3 stars = 50%
4+ = 38%
Thus, in the recent past as it reflects on just Cal's recruits as judged by Rivals and by our coaches ability to develop them, 4 stars are likely to slightly outperform while 2 stars surprisingly hold their own. Net net, stars matter (and not simply because of this analysis but based on more statistically relevant ones) but not THAT much. I didn't have time to break it down but a couple of things stuck out at me while doing this:
Our best recruiting classes on paper were 2010 and 2011 but those clearly underperformed. Stars seem to matter less with OL - We had several 4 star recruits and only one earned AP12 honors. BTW, that data point is backed up by NFL numbers correlating to OL. HOWEVER, I suspect that is changing. Kids are getting coached better earlier and scouting has gotten better (not just about big early) any more.
Any ways, don't fret 2 stars, root for 4 and 5 stars is my conclusion.
