We know early Vegas lines have us a 5 point dog (I think we'll see it revert to a pick'em or even Cal as a slight favorite by kickoff). We know SDSU won a lot of games last year, their fan base views them as having finished strong and the football media really likes them this year.
I believe that if the two teams had exchanged schedules that Cal would have gone undefeated and SDSU would have won 4-5 games so there's that to help with the comparison. That said, SDSU returns a ton of experience and they have a couple NFL players in addition to a coaching staff that clearly knows what it's doing on the defensive side of the ball.
Let's look at positional breakdowns:
QB: Despite the loss of Goff, there's a huge advantage for the Bears in both depth and talent. SDSU will break in a new primary starter with Christian Chapman, who started two games for the Aztecs last year and played against Cal. He can run but he's not much of a passer and isn't in the same league as Webb, Forest, et al
RB: SDSU has talent here with Pumphrey coming back and his backup Rashaad Penny. Pumphrey is the returning offensive MVP in the MWC. He's very quick and has good vision and an ability to catch passes. He'll reminder older Cal fans of Lindsay Chapman in size and style. Penny was actually a reasonably highly touted recruit with decent experience. Cal returns their top three and while none of them are complete backs, the total package at least matches the Aztecs
WR: The talent gap is pronounced in favor of Cal here. Not a lot of athleticism or speed for the Aztecs though there is slightly more experience coming back with Holder and Judge. Advantage to Cal
OL: SDSU returns three starters and 56 total starts. They have one stud OL in LG Siragusa who will get a long NFL look. They were just okay last year, especially against better competition. Likely they improve a bit given experience and Siragusa being a senior leader. Cal returns four starters and more returning starts than SDSU. The Bears finished the year impressively in pass protection and in the running game. The best unit on Cal is better than what the Aztecs will roll out
Offensive Coaching: Nod here has to go to Dykes and Spavital.
DL: SDSU plays a 3-3-5 and will need to replace two of their starters up front. That said they have returning production and talent in former Arizona player Kyle Kelley (7.5 sacks) and senior 1st team All MWC Alex Barrett (13 TFLs). Phil Steele thinks the group is among the best 25 nationally. I'd say that's a stretch but given Cal's youth, relative inexperience and lack of size I'd give a modest nod to SDSU here.
LB: This is SDSUs strongest unit and they an NFL prospect in Calvin Munson to go along with fellow senior returning starter Randy Ricks. Their is depth of talent here as well with top 35 national prospect Kyahva Tezino coming off a redshirt year. Cal has limited depth with a decent combo of experience and an advantage in raw athletic depth of talent yet the nod again is to the Aztecs
DB: SDSUs best player and its top NFL prospect is Damontae Kazee, a senior CB and the MWC Defensive Player of the Year last season. He's got three other returning starters around him albeit far less athletically gifted ones. Cal has significantly more raw depth of talent yet Kazee and the experience of his teammates will give SDSU an advantage.
Defensive Coaching: Rocky Long and his staff are known defensive studs, they get the advantage here
STs: SDSU breaks in a new kicker and a new longsnapper. Cal's Anderson made his last 22 FGs and we have a new punter with a big leg and a top notch long snapper. Coverage teams will accentuate Cal's overall athleticism advantage. Cal gets the nod
Overall: I think SDSU has the better defense and Cal the better offense. However, SDSU has a talent deficit that's meaningful. Think the gap between USC and Cal except slightly larger in this case. SDSU likely has but two players who would start on offense for Cal and despite a strong defense overall, only 4 surefire starters over the Bears on that side of the ball (I'd say Cal would have 2 surefire defensive starters over the Aztecs). In the 2nd half, Cal's OL vs. SDSU DL is likely going to be a bigger Bear advantage than the reverse and this is likely the difference in a close Bears win on the road.
I believe that if the two teams had exchanged schedules that Cal would have gone undefeated and SDSU would have won 4-5 games so there's that to help with the comparison. That said, SDSU returns a ton of experience and they have a couple NFL players in addition to a coaching staff that clearly knows what it's doing on the defensive side of the ball.
Let's look at positional breakdowns:
QB: Despite the loss of Goff, there's a huge advantage for the Bears in both depth and talent. SDSU will break in a new primary starter with Christian Chapman, who started two games for the Aztecs last year and played against Cal. He can run but he's not much of a passer and isn't in the same league as Webb, Forest, et al
RB: SDSU has talent here with Pumphrey coming back and his backup Rashaad Penny. Pumphrey is the returning offensive MVP in the MWC. He's very quick and has good vision and an ability to catch passes. He'll reminder older Cal fans of Lindsay Chapman in size and style. Penny was actually a reasonably highly touted recruit with decent experience. Cal returns their top three and while none of them are complete backs, the total package at least matches the Aztecs
WR: The talent gap is pronounced in favor of Cal here. Not a lot of athleticism or speed for the Aztecs though there is slightly more experience coming back with Holder and Judge. Advantage to Cal
OL: SDSU returns three starters and 56 total starts. They have one stud OL in LG Siragusa who will get a long NFL look. They were just okay last year, especially against better competition. Likely they improve a bit given experience and Siragusa being a senior leader. Cal returns four starters and more returning starts than SDSU. The Bears finished the year impressively in pass protection and in the running game. The best unit on Cal is better than what the Aztecs will roll out
Offensive Coaching: Nod here has to go to Dykes and Spavital.
DL: SDSU plays a 3-3-5 and will need to replace two of their starters up front. That said they have returning production and talent in former Arizona player Kyle Kelley (7.5 sacks) and senior 1st team All MWC Alex Barrett (13 TFLs). Phil Steele thinks the group is among the best 25 nationally. I'd say that's a stretch but given Cal's youth, relative inexperience and lack of size I'd give a modest nod to SDSU here.
LB: This is SDSUs strongest unit and they an NFL prospect in Calvin Munson to go along with fellow senior returning starter Randy Ricks. Their is depth of talent here as well with top 35 national prospect Kyahva Tezino coming off a redshirt year. Cal has limited depth with a decent combo of experience and an advantage in raw athletic depth of talent yet the nod again is to the Aztecs
DB: SDSUs best player and its top NFL prospect is Damontae Kazee, a senior CB and the MWC Defensive Player of the Year last season. He's got three other returning starters around him albeit far less athletically gifted ones. Cal has significantly more raw depth of talent yet Kazee and the experience of his teammates will give SDSU an advantage.
Defensive Coaching: Rocky Long and his staff are known defensive studs, they get the advantage here
STs: SDSU breaks in a new kicker and a new longsnapper. Cal's Anderson made his last 22 FGs and we have a new punter with a big leg and a top notch long snapper. Coverage teams will accentuate Cal's overall athleticism advantage. Cal gets the nod
Overall: I think SDSU has the better defense and Cal the better offense. However, SDSU has a talent deficit that's meaningful. Think the gap between USC and Cal except slightly larger in this case. SDSU likely has but two players who would start on offense for Cal and despite a strong defense overall, only 4 surefire starters over the Bears on that side of the ball (I'd say Cal would have 2 surefire defensive starters over the Aztecs). In the 2nd half, Cal's OL vs. SDSU DL is likely going to be a bigger Bear advantage than the reverse and this is likely the difference in a close Bears win on the road.
