Tonight, Cal men’s basketball will travel to Palo Alto to take on the Stanford Cardinal. Tipoff is 8:00 PM PST on Fox Sports 1. Cal comes into this game with a 12-5 record overall and a 2-2 record in the Pac-12. Stanford comes into this game with a 9-6 record overall and a 2-2 record in the Pac-12.
Due to this being a rivalry game, I will provide some additional features to this game-hub that I don’t provide for other game hubs. I will include in this game hub quotes from Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins, Stanford forward Rosco Allen, and Stanford forward Michael Humphrey from Tuesday’s press conference in addition to quotes from Cal head coach Cuonzo Martin, Tyrone Wallace, and Ivan Rabb from Wednesday’s press conference. I was present at both press conferences trying to ask questions that you guys want answers to! But, as is usual, I will first kick things off with five key things to look for in the game as well as my prediction.
#1. Cal should dominate Stanford on the glass: Cal comes into this game averaging 40.9 rebounds per game while opponents average 32.5 rebounds per game. That’s a +8.4 margin on the glass. As for Stanford, they average 36.8 rebounds per game while their opponents average 34.1 rebounds per game, which is only a +4.7 margin. A big reason for why Stanford isn’t grabbing as many rebounds has to do with the fact that sophomore power forward Reid Travis is out indefinitely due to an injury. He grabs 7.1 rebounds per game and is definitely Stanford’s most physical presence in the paint. With Travis out, Cal really should expect to control the glass.
However, Stanford still has some guys who can hold their own in the paint. Sophomore forward Michael Humphrey grabs 7.2 rebounds per game and senior forward Roscoe Allen grabs 5.9 rebounds per game. Plus, freshman seven-footer Josh Sharma is coming along and should see some extended minutes against Kameron Rooks and Kingsley Okoroh. So, while Cal should still win the battle on the glass, Stanford will still pose a good challenge even without Reid Travis.
#2. Tempo will be huge: Whichever team dictates the tempo will have an edge in this game. Stanford averages 12.2 assists per game and 11.93 turnovers per game. Cal averages 13 assists per game and 12.53 turnovers per game. Stanford also averages 55.2 shots per game while Cal averages 56.70 shots per game. While these numbers seem subtle, what is true is that Cal likes to play more in transition while Stanford likes to play more in the half court.
I watched Stanford play DePaul this year in Maples Pavilion and while Stanford can play in transition, it is clear that the half court is where they are most comfortable. Cal will want to do everything they can to get out in transition and play a pace faster than what Stanford is comfortable with.
#3. Both teams are bad foul shooting teams: This is one area where Reid Travis’ absence doesn’t help Cal. Reid Travis shoots 48.0% from the line. As a team, Stanford shoots 66.8% from the line while Cal shoots 66.7% from the line. Given that both teams are poor foul shooting teams and they shoot around the same percentage, odds are good that if one team knocks down their foul shots, the other probably won’t. Cal will really want to make sure that if there’s any team on the floor knocking down foul shots, its them. The two most important things to do in basketball is to rebound the basketball and knock down free throws. Cal rebounds well, but now they need to start knocking down foul shots.
#4. Senior leadership: Stanford senior forward Rosco Allen is flourishing as the new leader of his team. He is averaging 14.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game to go along with 40.0% shooting from beyond the arc. Rosco is playing really good basketball and is seeing his stock rise on NBA draft boards. As for Cal, Tyrone Wallace is in his second season as the leader of his team and overall, he too is doing a good job taking on this role. Wallace comes into this game averaging 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game.
If this game gets close, odds are good Rosco Allen and Tyrone Wallace will have the ball in their hands down the stretch. Whichever guy does a better job leading his team in crunch time will likely see his team come out victorious.
#5. Depth could be a factor: With Reid Travis out, Stanford has only four players averaging double figures in scoring: Rosco Allen (14.1 points per game), Marcus Allen (12.7 points per game), Dorian Pickens (11.4 points per game), and Michael Humphrey (10.9 points per game). The next highest scorer on their team is Marcus Sheffield who averages 5.5 points per game.
As for Cal, they have appear to have an edge in this department, though they too have four players scoring in double figures: Tyrone Wallace (15.4 points per game), Jaylen Brown (14.9 points per game), Jordan Mathews (13.1 points per game), and Ivan Rabb (12.5 points per game).
Jabari Bird, who is averaging 7.9 points per game, should be averaging more than what he is. He should be a double-figures scorer on average and we’ve seen a bit of an awakening from Kingsley Okoroh and Kameron Rooks along with some increased scoring from Sam Singer as of late. The bottom line is that I think Cal has a little bit more depth in this game. Stephen Domingo, while quiet, has the potential to get rolling as well.
Also, I should make it clear that Cal’s depth isn’t strictly scoring. Sam Singer and Stephen Domingo can both bring great energy and defense off the bench even if their shots aren’t falling. So, in terms of depth as a whole, both scoring and just all-around production, Cal appears to have an edge in this game. Especially with Reid Travis out.
Prediction: Cal really needs to win this game and the fact that they should win this game ups the odds of them doing so. Stanford has a very good team. I respect what Johnny Dawkins has done with his team and he has them playing very good basketball. They move the ball well and they are very unselfish. Nobody has to be the hero. Rosco Allen may be the leader, but he doesn’t have the mentality that it’s him versus the world. He trusts his teammates and as a result he has them in a better position than most people thought they would be in.
As for Cal, they are a very good team that is underperforming based on their expectations. I do believe that what we saw up in Oregon was as much about how good Oregon State and Oregon are as it was about Cal’s own struggles. Cal could have won both of those games, but they came up just short. If Cal can play their style of game, which is predicated on defense, rebounding, and unselfish play, they should find success against Stanford and find a way to get the win.
As sort of a bonus key to this game, Cal has to get Jordan Mathews going in this game. If Rosco Allen starts to heat up from three-point range like he has been as of late, Cal will need to combat that with some threes of their own. Jordan Mathews is by far the most likely guy to get in a rhythm from beyond the arc, hence it’s key that he gets a lot of touches and finds a rhythm. In terms of my final prediction, I will say Cal wins 73-68. It’ll be close, but Cal will pick up their first road win of Pac-12 play.
Due to this being a rivalry game, I will provide some additional features to this game-hub that I don’t provide for other game hubs. I will include in this game hub quotes from Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins, Stanford forward Rosco Allen, and Stanford forward Michael Humphrey from Tuesday’s press conference in addition to quotes from Cal head coach Cuonzo Martin, Tyrone Wallace, and Ivan Rabb from Wednesday’s press conference. I was present at both press conferences trying to ask questions that you guys want answers to! But, as is usual, I will first kick things off with five key things to look for in the game as well as my prediction.
#1. Cal should dominate Stanford on the glass: Cal comes into this game averaging 40.9 rebounds per game while opponents average 32.5 rebounds per game. That’s a +8.4 margin on the glass. As for Stanford, they average 36.8 rebounds per game while their opponents average 34.1 rebounds per game, which is only a +4.7 margin. A big reason for why Stanford isn’t grabbing as many rebounds has to do with the fact that sophomore power forward Reid Travis is out indefinitely due to an injury. He grabs 7.1 rebounds per game and is definitely Stanford’s most physical presence in the paint. With Travis out, Cal really should expect to control the glass.
However, Stanford still has some guys who can hold their own in the paint. Sophomore forward Michael Humphrey grabs 7.2 rebounds per game and senior forward Roscoe Allen grabs 5.9 rebounds per game. Plus, freshman seven-footer Josh Sharma is coming along and should see some extended minutes against Kameron Rooks and Kingsley Okoroh. So, while Cal should still win the battle on the glass, Stanford will still pose a good challenge even without Reid Travis.
#2. Tempo will be huge: Whichever team dictates the tempo will have an edge in this game. Stanford averages 12.2 assists per game and 11.93 turnovers per game. Cal averages 13 assists per game and 12.53 turnovers per game. Stanford also averages 55.2 shots per game while Cal averages 56.70 shots per game. While these numbers seem subtle, what is true is that Cal likes to play more in transition while Stanford likes to play more in the half court.
I watched Stanford play DePaul this year in Maples Pavilion and while Stanford can play in transition, it is clear that the half court is where they are most comfortable. Cal will want to do everything they can to get out in transition and play a pace faster than what Stanford is comfortable with.
#3. Both teams are bad foul shooting teams: This is one area where Reid Travis’ absence doesn’t help Cal. Reid Travis shoots 48.0% from the line. As a team, Stanford shoots 66.8% from the line while Cal shoots 66.7% from the line. Given that both teams are poor foul shooting teams and they shoot around the same percentage, odds are good that if one team knocks down their foul shots, the other probably won’t. Cal will really want to make sure that if there’s any team on the floor knocking down foul shots, its them. The two most important things to do in basketball is to rebound the basketball and knock down free throws. Cal rebounds well, but now they need to start knocking down foul shots.
#4. Senior leadership: Stanford senior forward Rosco Allen is flourishing as the new leader of his team. He is averaging 14.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game to go along with 40.0% shooting from beyond the arc. Rosco is playing really good basketball and is seeing his stock rise on NBA draft boards. As for Cal, Tyrone Wallace is in his second season as the leader of his team and overall, he too is doing a good job taking on this role. Wallace comes into this game averaging 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game.
If this game gets close, odds are good Rosco Allen and Tyrone Wallace will have the ball in their hands down the stretch. Whichever guy does a better job leading his team in crunch time will likely see his team come out victorious.
#5. Depth could be a factor: With Reid Travis out, Stanford has only four players averaging double figures in scoring: Rosco Allen (14.1 points per game), Marcus Allen (12.7 points per game), Dorian Pickens (11.4 points per game), and Michael Humphrey (10.9 points per game). The next highest scorer on their team is Marcus Sheffield who averages 5.5 points per game.
As for Cal, they have appear to have an edge in this department, though they too have four players scoring in double figures: Tyrone Wallace (15.4 points per game), Jaylen Brown (14.9 points per game), Jordan Mathews (13.1 points per game), and Ivan Rabb (12.5 points per game).
Jabari Bird, who is averaging 7.9 points per game, should be averaging more than what he is. He should be a double-figures scorer on average and we’ve seen a bit of an awakening from Kingsley Okoroh and Kameron Rooks along with some increased scoring from Sam Singer as of late. The bottom line is that I think Cal has a little bit more depth in this game. Stephen Domingo, while quiet, has the potential to get rolling as well.
Also, I should make it clear that Cal’s depth isn’t strictly scoring. Sam Singer and Stephen Domingo can both bring great energy and defense off the bench even if their shots aren’t falling. So, in terms of depth as a whole, both scoring and just all-around production, Cal appears to have an edge in this game. Especially with Reid Travis out.
Prediction: Cal really needs to win this game and the fact that they should win this game ups the odds of them doing so. Stanford has a very good team. I respect what Johnny Dawkins has done with his team and he has them playing very good basketball. They move the ball well and they are very unselfish. Nobody has to be the hero. Rosco Allen may be the leader, but he doesn’t have the mentality that it’s him versus the world. He trusts his teammates and as a result he has them in a better position than most people thought they would be in.
As for Cal, they are a very good team that is underperforming based on their expectations. I do believe that what we saw up in Oregon was as much about how good Oregon State and Oregon are as it was about Cal’s own struggles. Cal could have won both of those games, but they came up just short. If Cal can play their style of game, which is predicated on defense, rebounding, and unselfish play, they should find success against Stanford and find a way to get the win.
As sort of a bonus key to this game, Cal has to get Jordan Mathews going in this game. If Rosco Allen starts to heat up from three-point range like he has been as of late, Cal will need to combat that with some threes of their own. Jordan Mathews is by far the most likely guy to get in a rhythm from beyond the arc, hence it’s key that he gets a lot of touches and finds a rhythm. In terms of my final prediction, I will say Cal wins 73-68. It’ll be close, but Cal will pick up their first road win of Pac-12 play.
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