At 6:30 PM PST tonight on Pac-12 Networks, Cal men's basketball (12-4) will take on the Oregon State Beavers (10-3) in Corvallis. Cal comes into this game 2-1 in Pac-12 play while Oregon State is 1-1. I will fire up this thread with five things to look for going into this crucial road game.
#1. Cal has to keep Gary Payton II out of the lane and force him to take jumpers: Of Gary Payton's 161 field goal attempts on the season, only 25 of them have come from beyond the three-point line. He averages less than one three-point field goal made per game and he averages 16.8 points per game, which is a team-high. Payton will try to get to the cup for some easy layups and use his quickness to beat his man into the lane. Cal must play good defense and not be afraid to send him to the foul line where he only makes 61.4% of his shots.
#2. Cal has to control the glass: Cal averages 41.4 rebounds per game and gives up 32.4 rebounds per game for a +9 advantage while Oregon State averages 36.7 rebounds per game for a +.2 margin. Gary Payton II leads the Beavers in rebounds with 8.1 rebounds per game and no one else on his team averages more than 5 rebounds per game. Ivan Rabb should have a field day on the glass, as should Kingsley Okoroh and Kameron Rooks.
#3. Ivan Rabb has to stay on the floor: Going off of my second key to this game, Ivan Rabb has to stay on the floor for Cal. He is an animal on the glass, averaging 8.6 rebounds per game while playing 8.1 fewer minutes per game than Gary Payton II. If Ivan Rabb can stay out of foul trouble and play around 32 minutes, Oregon State will have a really difficult time winning this game given Rabb's huge advantage inside.
#4. Jordan Mathews should bounce back and erupt: Look for Jordan Mathews to get a lot of touches early and for Cal to try to get him rolling. If he can get off to a good start, Cal should feed off of that and play much better than they did against Oregon. I expect Jordan Mathews to bounce back and see his share of threes fall in this game.
#5. Who will be the better closer if it's close: Gary Payton II or Tyrone Wallace? If this game goes down to the wire, Oregon State will need Gary Payton II to step up and be their go-to guy in the clutch. As for Cal, they'll need Tyrone Wallace to be their guy to step up. Whichever guy plays better in crunch-time could decide the fate of this game if it's close. Just to be clear, being the go-to guy in the clutch doesn't necessarily mean taking all the shots in the clutch. It just means making the right plays and leading out. Tyrone has to be smart with his decision-making and make the right plays when Cal needs him to.
Prediction: I predict that Cal will find a way to get this win. They played pretty poorly against the Ducks and still almost won. I look for Jordan Mathews to get some shots to fall, for Tyrone Wallace to play better, and for Jabari Bird to maybe get rolling a bit. I predict Cal wins this game 74-70.
#1. Cal has to keep Gary Payton II out of the lane and force him to take jumpers: Of Gary Payton's 161 field goal attempts on the season, only 25 of them have come from beyond the three-point line. He averages less than one three-point field goal made per game and he averages 16.8 points per game, which is a team-high. Payton will try to get to the cup for some easy layups and use his quickness to beat his man into the lane. Cal must play good defense and not be afraid to send him to the foul line where he only makes 61.4% of his shots.
#2. Cal has to control the glass: Cal averages 41.4 rebounds per game and gives up 32.4 rebounds per game for a +9 advantage while Oregon State averages 36.7 rebounds per game for a +.2 margin. Gary Payton II leads the Beavers in rebounds with 8.1 rebounds per game and no one else on his team averages more than 5 rebounds per game. Ivan Rabb should have a field day on the glass, as should Kingsley Okoroh and Kameron Rooks.
#3. Ivan Rabb has to stay on the floor: Going off of my second key to this game, Ivan Rabb has to stay on the floor for Cal. He is an animal on the glass, averaging 8.6 rebounds per game while playing 8.1 fewer minutes per game than Gary Payton II. If Ivan Rabb can stay out of foul trouble and play around 32 minutes, Oregon State will have a really difficult time winning this game given Rabb's huge advantage inside.
#4. Jordan Mathews should bounce back and erupt: Look for Jordan Mathews to get a lot of touches early and for Cal to try to get him rolling. If he can get off to a good start, Cal should feed off of that and play much better than they did against Oregon. I expect Jordan Mathews to bounce back and see his share of threes fall in this game.
#5. Who will be the better closer if it's close: Gary Payton II or Tyrone Wallace? If this game goes down to the wire, Oregon State will need Gary Payton II to step up and be their go-to guy in the clutch. As for Cal, they'll need Tyrone Wallace to be their guy to step up. Whichever guy plays better in crunch-time could decide the fate of this game if it's close. Just to be clear, being the go-to guy in the clutch doesn't necessarily mean taking all the shots in the clutch. It just means making the right plays and leading out. Tyrone has to be smart with his decision-making and make the right plays when Cal needs him to.
Prediction: I predict that Cal will find a way to get this win. They played pretty poorly against the Ducks and still almost won. I look for Jordan Mathews to get some shots to fall, for Tyrone Wallace to play better, and for Jabari Bird to maybe get rolling a bit. I predict Cal wins this game 74-70.
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