I'm generally very biased towards College football teams that return a lot of experienced players. That's something that Cal has not had a ton of the past few years with last year being a big step up and this upcoming season being an even bigger ones.
When Phil Steele's preview arrives in a few weeks, I expect Cal to be at the top of his experience charts. Top 10 nationally I suspect. Steele has tracked the correlation of experience to wins over many years and believes it's causal.
With that in mind, I went back to last years preview guide and looked at Ohio State. They ranked dead last in the Big 10 and 50th out of the 60 Power 5 conference teams.
Add to that the fact that they lost their starting and backup QBs and you are left scratching your head. How did the Buckeyes win the national championship?
I see four factors:
1.) They played a relatively easy schedule, especially early while they were figuring it all out. They only played four road games and the first one wasn't until week 6. Lots of time to turn a young team into a veteran team. BTW, they lost to the only decent opponent they faced in that stretch, Va Tech.
2.) Injury luck. Outside of QB, they went through the season almost entirely unscathed.
3.) Talent: They have a lot of it, a whole lot of it. 20 of their 22 positional starters were very highly touted recruits. Ditto with their backups.
4.) Coaching: Urban Meyer is a complete stud when it comes to on the field performance
So what, if anything, does this mean for our Bears? I'm not sure it says a lot but what it does say isn't super encouraging.
Our schedule on paper looks daunting
Who knows with regards to our fortune with injuries. Through the Spring, I can say that we're doing okay.
Our talent level is not super high at least when looked at through the lens of recruiting rankings and likely NFL draft prospects. Our two deeps on defense will likely only have 6 or 7 kids who in Phil Steele's aggregated rankings were highly touted (Jalil, Jefferson, Barton, Downs, White, Barr and McClure). Offensively, we fare similarly with six players who will start or play a lot that were highly touted (Goff, Treggs, Lawler, Powe, M Cochran and Rigsbee). NFL wise Goff is a top pick and then we have 5 or 6 kids who are likely draft choices but most will be third day players. Net here is that the cupboard isn't bare but it's far from full
Coaching wise we have a question mark. Likely a lot of confidence on our offensive execution and big questions on defense. Overall, more questions than answers as well.
This doesn't change my view that we will win 8+ games. It's just good fodder for discussion. As to why it doesn't make me more pessimistic, I will say that I believe our OL, despite not having big prep accolades, will be very good with Borrayo and Moore outplaying their rankings and our WR/RB corps has some unheralded studs in Lasco, Anderson and Davis. Defensively, my belief is that we will make up for our lack of elite talent with experience and depth. And I choose to be cautiously optimistic about Sonny Dykes and his staff
When Phil Steele's preview arrives in a few weeks, I expect Cal to be at the top of his experience charts. Top 10 nationally I suspect. Steele has tracked the correlation of experience to wins over many years and believes it's causal.
With that in mind, I went back to last years preview guide and looked at Ohio State. They ranked dead last in the Big 10 and 50th out of the 60 Power 5 conference teams.
Add to that the fact that they lost their starting and backup QBs and you are left scratching your head. How did the Buckeyes win the national championship?
I see four factors:
1.) They played a relatively easy schedule, especially early while they were figuring it all out. They only played four road games and the first one wasn't until week 6. Lots of time to turn a young team into a veteran team. BTW, they lost to the only decent opponent they faced in that stretch, Va Tech.
2.) Injury luck. Outside of QB, they went through the season almost entirely unscathed.
3.) Talent: They have a lot of it, a whole lot of it. 20 of their 22 positional starters were very highly touted recruits. Ditto with their backups.
4.) Coaching: Urban Meyer is a complete stud when it comes to on the field performance
So what, if anything, does this mean for our Bears? I'm not sure it says a lot but what it does say isn't super encouraging.
Our schedule on paper looks daunting
Who knows with regards to our fortune with injuries. Through the Spring, I can say that we're doing okay.
Our talent level is not super high at least when looked at through the lens of recruiting rankings and likely NFL draft prospects. Our two deeps on defense will likely only have 6 or 7 kids who in Phil Steele's aggregated rankings were highly touted (Jalil, Jefferson, Barton, Downs, White, Barr and McClure). Offensively, we fare similarly with six players who will start or play a lot that were highly touted (Goff, Treggs, Lawler, Powe, M Cochran and Rigsbee). NFL wise Goff is a top pick and then we have 5 or 6 kids who are likely draft choices but most will be third day players. Net here is that the cupboard isn't bare but it's far from full
Coaching wise we have a question mark. Likely a lot of confidence on our offensive execution and big questions on defense. Overall, more questions than answers as well.
This doesn't change my view that we will win 8+ games. It's just good fodder for discussion. As to why it doesn't make me more pessimistic, I will say that I believe our OL, despite not having big prep accolades, will be very good with Borrayo and Moore outplaying their rankings and our WR/RB corps has some unheralded studs in Lasco, Anderson and Davis. Defensively, my belief is that we will make up for our lack of elite talent with experience and depth. And I choose to be cautiously optimistic about Sonny Dykes and his staff
