Cal men's basketball is now 2-2 in Pac-12 play with wins at home over Colorado and Utah and losses on the road at Oregon and Oregon State. A split on this road trip would have been very nice for Cal, but alas they fell just short of accomplishing this goal while simultaneously not playing anything close to their full potential. After I finished writing the preview for the Cal women's basketball game against Utah, I got to thinking about what would be a realistic and good target record for Cal. I would be curious for your thoughts, but I think 12-6 should be Cal's target record in the Pac-12. Why? Because a 12-6 record would get Cal in the NCAA tournament and it's still attainable.
Cal is VERY good at home and it's possible that they finish out the season undefeated at home. They have 7 games left at Haas Pavilion and the only game where they might not be favored is the game against Arizona, which will be another Gold Out Haas. We've seen Cal win that game before, so in truth, a 9-0 record at home is certainly possible. It won't be easy for them to do it, but they can do it. So, if Cal goes 9-0 at home, what does that mean for their road record? It means they'll have to go 3-6 on the road, which is pretty weak, but good enough if they go 9-0 at home. If Cal wins on Thursday in Palo Alto against Stanford, they'll be right on track for that 3-6 road record pace. I think expecting Cal, even before this road trip, to win 14+ games in Pac-12 play would be unrealistic considering the depth of this conference.
If Cal were to go 12-6, even with a 3-6 road record, the committee would still look favorably upon them. A solid run in the Pac-12 tournament to the semis or finals would be great, but it wouldn't be needed for Cal to make the NCAA tournament. It would only have an effect on where they are seeded. So, I guess what I'm saying is that with a win on Thursday, Cal will be right where they need to be: Undefeated at home with a 33.3% road winning percentage.
Now, if Cal drops a game at home, then they'll have to find a way to get a fourth win on the road, which could be tough. But for now, Cal is by no means in a situation where they should panic or freak out. It's still a long season and they still have a great opportunity to finish with a very solid record in a very difficult conference.
Note: I think a lot of this applies to the women's team as well. If they can go 12-6 in conference play, that will be very good, but with their lack of healthy bodies, that might be less realistic of a goal. Still, even they should shoot for a 12-6 record in Pac-12 play. They too can hold serve at home and stay at that 33.3% clip on the road.
Cal is VERY good at home and it's possible that they finish out the season undefeated at home. They have 7 games left at Haas Pavilion and the only game where they might not be favored is the game against Arizona, which will be another Gold Out Haas. We've seen Cal win that game before, so in truth, a 9-0 record at home is certainly possible. It won't be easy for them to do it, but they can do it. So, if Cal goes 9-0 at home, what does that mean for their road record? It means they'll have to go 3-6 on the road, which is pretty weak, but good enough if they go 9-0 at home. If Cal wins on Thursday in Palo Alto against Stanford, they'll be right on track for that 3-6 road record pace. I think expecting Cal, even before this road trip, to win 14+ games in Pac-12 play would be unrealistic considering the depth of this conference.
If Cal were to go 12-6, even with a 3-6 road record, the committee would still look favorably upon them. A solid run in the Pac-12 tournament to the semis or finals would be great, but it wouldn't be needed for Cal to make the NCAA tournament. It would only have an effect on where they are seeded. So, I guess what I'm saying is that with a win on Thursday, Cal will be right where they need to be: Undefeated at home with a 33.3% road winning percentage.
Now, if Cal drops a game at home, then they'll have to find a way to get a fourth win on the road, which could be tough. But for now, Cal is by no means in a situation where they should panic or freak out. It's still a long season and they still have a great opportunity to finish with a very solid record in a very difficult conference.
Note: I think a lot of this applies to the women's team as well. If they can go 12-6 in conference play, that will be very good, but with their lack of healthy bodies, that might be less realistic of a goal. Still, even they should shoot for a 12-6 record in Pac-12 play. They too can hold serve at home and stay at that 33.3% clip on the road.
