First, the points that have been made in previous threads about the quality of football in the Pac 12 in 2015 vs 2002 are ones everyone needs to absorb. It's night and day.
We were IMO by far the strongest conference in the US in 2014 and may well be again in 2015. Look at the coaches in the conference - it's an embarrassment of riches.
It's FAR tougher today to compete for a conference title than it was in the early part of this millennium.
2015 is going to be a very interesting year, lots of storylines to follow:
- Will USC return to prominence? On paper, they are the favorite to not only win the conference but to represent it in the BCS Playoff. Yet, they haven't been elite for quite a few years and many questions abound for Mr. Sarkisian. Depth remains an issue given recent scholarship limitations. But the entire OL returns along with a strong QB and a ton of raw talent at the skill positions. They return 7 starters on defense and their two deeps are chock full of 4 and 5 star players
- Hundley and UCLA: We'll find out how much he meant to the Bruins as they basically return their entire team minus him on offense and only have to replace four players on defense. Lots of strong recruiting the last four years leave this team loaded with talent. Jim Mora looked very good early but disappointed last year.
- Can Oregon win without Mariota with a questionable defense? Is Helfrich for real? Depth on their DL is thin and they have questions in their secondary. Adams could be a stud for them at QB but he will need better OL play than the Ducks saw last year
- Phil Steele loves Stanford this year but I don't understand why. Their defenses have been nationally elite the last few years but it's really hard to imagine that being the case in 2015. If they can maintain that level of play, Shaw is the real deal and they will contend for the Pac12. Hogan is no world beater but I suspect their OL play will improve.
- Utah had a decent year in 2014 and brings back quite a bit. Lots of turnovers among KWs assistants. Buzz coming from Utah this Spring was VERY positive. KW can clearly coach STs and his teams almost always seem to win the TO battle. He also seems to field great defenses despite subpar recruiting. He's got experience at QB, talent at RB, good returning pieces on both DL and a sprinkling of NFL quality athletes throughout the roster (including former Bear, Tevin Carter). Yet, they've underperformed since joining the Pac12.
- ASU won last year despite being outgained in P12 play and frankly the ball bounced just right for them in three of their wins. I'd like to say they will struggle but then again I thought they would struggle last year, replacing 8 starters on defense. Graham can clearly coach and recruiting continues to improve. Yet, I can't help but think they end up middle of the pack.
- Will there be surprises from the five rebuilding programs - OSU, UW, WSU, Colorado and Cal. On paper, Cal and Colorado look to be very improved. OSU looks a year away, WSU has IMO their best team yet under Leach but still way too many questions on defense (I think Leach is struggling to recruit to Pullman). Perhaps Peterson does more with less talent now that he's effected the cultural change he wanted?
- How good of a coach is Rich Rod? His talent level is below Cal's IMO yet he won the P12 south and has beat Oregon twice in the last two years. Apparently, he's pretty good.
Purely viewing the league as if coaching didn't matter and looking at experience, talent and depth on each roster, I would rate the conference as follows in 2015: (in order)
Two national elites:
USC
UCLA
Two good teams:
Oregon
Stanford
Four pretty goods:
Cal
ASU
Utah
UofA
Two below averages:
Colorado
UW
Two rebuilding:
Washington State
Oregon State
I really don't think the gap between Oregon/Stanford and our Bears is that wide. And I don't see any gap between Cal and Utah/Arizona and ASU.
We are IMO, no worse than the fifth best roster in the Pac 12. The question is coaching. We have more unknowns there than anyone other than Colorado IMO. In a forced ranking today, I'd rate Dykes 11th of the 12 coaches based on resume to date with Sarkisian getting the nod at 10th.
As to what I believe will happen this year, it's way too early but here goes nothing (with the emphasis on nothing).
Pac 12 South:
USC - 8 and 1
UCLA - 7 and 2
Utah - 5 and 4
ASU - 4 and 5
U of A - 4 and 5
Colorado - 2 and 7
Pac 12 North:
Oregon - 6 and 3
Cal - 5 and 4
Stanford - 5 and 4
UW - 3 and 6
WSU - 3 and 6
OSU - 2 and 7
Some color:
If USC loses three games in conference, they need to fire Sarkisian
I'm only 75% sold on Mora. People are going to cut him slack for his QB situation but why? He's had four years to figure it out, he has the #1 recruit and a senior backup from last season. They can Trent Dilfer their way to a great season
Oregon takes a step back this year. I think their offense will still be really good. 35+ PPG good but it won't match last years. I don't love their defense. Not enough depth or talent at DL and some question marks in the secondary. They miss their former DC.
Stanford is really intriguing. Their great OL from last season underperformed. Not sure why - perhaps it's coaching? Their secondary looks anemic and their DL is completely new. I can imagine them going 4 and 5 or even 3 and 6 if Shaw is not as good as he has appeared
I actually believe Utah, UofA and ASU have good teams, they just face a brutal P12 South. Why do I like their teams? Utah looks like Oregon State of old - tons of marginal kids academically and character wise that fit KWs program and will walk through fire for him. Their tougher and more athletic than many teams and when they have good lines on both sides of the ball, watch out. ASU has Graham and that young defense from last year is a year older. I also believe he's recruiting well and some studs will emerge from their underrated roster. UofA has RichRod and he's really good at maxing out his talent. Arizona looks a lot like his old WVU teams. 2 and 3 star kids who fit his system.
UW and WSU will win 3 games each because they have good coaches. I like Colorado and Mcyntire but I fear he is Sonny Dykes with a worse roster. Just not sure that team really believes enough in itself.
Cal - It's really all about Dykes. If he can max this teams potential out, we can be special. If we can't match the toughness, self believe and competitive fire of the better coached Pac 12 programs, I smell mediocrity. I'm betting on the former and an 8-4 season with two big wins - Texas and Stanford. I think our defense lets us down in a couple of close games, especially our lack of speed and a pass rush, otherwise we could easily win 10 games. Give us a healthy Scarlett for a full season at DE and two fast DBs who can play (one CB and one Safety) and this team could be special.
Potential surprise teams: WSU has its best offense under Leach and its best overall roster in his tenure. Colorado - They aren't going to be a walk in the park for anyone this year. If they win some games early (Colorado State), perhaps they find their confidence and Cal.
We were IMO by far the strongest conference in the US in 2014 and may well be again in 2015. Look at the coaches in the conference - it's an embarrassment of riches.
It's FAR tougher today to compete for a conference title than it was in the early part of this millennium.
2015 is going to be a very interesting year, lots of storylines to follow:
- Will USC return to prominence? On paper, they are the favorite to not only win the conference but to represent it in the BCS Playoff. Yet, they haven't been elite for quite a few years and many questions abound for Mr. Sarkisian. Depth remains an issue given recent scholarship limitations. But the entire OL returns along with a strong QB and a ton of raw talent at the skill positions. They return 7 starters on defense and their two deeps are chock full of 4 and 5 star players
- Hundley and UCLA: We'll find out how much he meant to the Bruins as they basically return their entire team minus him on offense and only have to replace four players on defense. Lots of strong recruiting the last four years leave this team loaded with talent. Jim Mora looked very good early but disappointed last year.
- Can Oregon win without Mariota with a questionable defense? Is Helfrich for real? Depth on their DL is thin and they have questions in their secondary. Adams could be a stud for them at QB but he will need better OL play than the Ducks saw last year
- Phil Steele loves Stanford this year but I don't understand why. Their defenses have been nationally elite the last few years but it's really hard to imagine that being the case in 2015. If they can maintain that level of play, Shaw is the real deal and they will contend for the Pac12. Hogan is no world beater but I suspect their OL play will improve.
- Utah had a decent year in 2014 and brings back quite a bit. Lots of turnovers among KWs assistants. Buzz coming from Utah this Spring was VERY positive. KW can clearly coach STs and his teams almost always seem to win the TO battle. He also seems to field great defenses despite subpar recruiting. He's got experience at QB, talent at RB, good returning pieces on both DL and a sprinkling of NFL quality athletes throughout the roster (including former Bear, Tevin Carter). Yet, they've underperformed since joining the Pac12.
- ASU won last year despite being outgained in P12 play and frankly the ball bounced just right for them in three of their wins. I'd like to say they will struggle but then again I thought they would struggle last year, replacing 8 starters on defense. Graham can clearly coach and recruiting continues to improve. Yet, I can't help but think they end up middle of the pack.
- Will there be surprises from the five rebuilding programs - OSU, UW, WSU, Colorado and Cal. On paper, Cal and Colorado look to be very improved. OSU looks a year away, WSU has IMO their best team yet under Leach but still way too many questions on defense (I think Leach is struggling to recruit to Pullman). Perhaps Peterson does more with less talent now that he's effected the cultural change he wanted?
- How good of a coach is Rich Rod? His talent level is below Cal's IMO yet he won the P12 south and has beat Oregon twice in the last two years. Apparently, he's pretty good.
Purely viewing the league as if coaching didn't matter and looking at experience, talent and depth on each roster, I would rate the conference as follows in 2015: (in order)
Two national elites:
USC
UCLA
Two good teams:
Oregon
Stanford
Four pretty goods:
Cal
ASU
Utah
UofA
Two below averages:
Colorado
UW
Two rebuilding:
Washington State
Oregon State
I really don't think the gap between Oregon/Stanford and our Bears is that wide. And I don't see any gap between Cal and Utah/Arizona and ASU.
We are IMO, no worse than the fifth best roster in the Pac 12. The question is coaching. We have more unknowns there than anyone other than Colorado IMO. In a forced ranking today, I'd rate Dykes 11th of the 12 coaches based on resume to date with Sarkisian getting the nod at 10th.
As to what I believe will happen this year, it's way too early but here goes nothing (with the emphasis on nothing).
Pac 12 South:
USC - 8 and 1
UCLA - 7 and 2
Utah - 5 and 4
ASU - 4 and 5
U of A - 4 and 5
Colorado - 2 and 7
Pac 12 North:
Oregon - 6 and 3
Cal - 5 and 4
Stanford - 5 and 4
UW - 3 and 6
WSU - 3 and 6
OSU - 2 and 7
Some color:
If USC loses three games in conference, they need to fire Sarkisian
I'm only 75% sold on Mora. People are going to cut him slack for his QB situation but why? He's had four years to figure it out, he has the #1 recruit and a senior backup from last season. They can Trent Dilfer their way to a great season
Oregon takes a step back this year. I think their offense will still be really good. 35+ PPG good but it won't match last years. I don't love their defense. Not enough depth or talent at DL and some question marks in the secondary. They miss their former DC.
Stanford is really intriguing. Their great OL from last season underperformed. Not sure why - perhaps it's coaching? Their secondary looks anemic and their DL is completely new. I can imagine them going 4 and 5 or even 3 and 6 if Shaw is not as good as he has appeared
I actually believe Utah, UofA and ASU have good teams, they just face a brutal P12 South. Why do I like their teams? Utah looks like Oregon State of old - tons of marginal kids academically and character wise that fit KWs program and will walk through fire for him. Their tougher and more athletic than many teams and when they have good lines on both sides of the ball, watch out. ASU has Graham and that young defense from last year is a year older. I also believe he's recruiting well and some studs will emerge from their underrated roster. UofA has RichRod and he's really good at maxing out his talent. Arizona looks a lot like his old WVU teams. 2 and 3 star kids who fit his system.
UW and WSU will win 3 games each because they have good coaches. I like Colorado and Mcyntire but I fear he is Sonny Dykes with a worse roster. Just not sure that team really believes enough in itself.
Cal - It's really all about Dykes. If he can max this teams potential out, we can be special. If we can't match the toughness, self believe and competitive fire of the better coached Pac 12 programs, I smell mediocrity. I'm betting on the former and an 8-4 season with two big wins - Texas and Stanford. I think our defense lets us down in a couple of close games, especially our lack of speed and a pass rush, otherwise we could easily win 10 games. Give us a healthy Scarlett for a full season at DE and two fast DBs who can play (one CB and one Safety) and this team could be special.
Potential surprise teams: WSU has its best offense under Leach and its best overall roster in his tenure. Colorado - They aren't going to be a walk in the park for anyone this year. If they win some games early (Colorado State), perhaps they find their confidence and Cal.
