Now having had the benefit of seeing the teams play, here is how I think the conference will shake out...
Pac 12 North
(1) Oregon
Looking more vulnerable than they have in years, particularly on defense, but still should be good enough to win a relatively weak Pac 12 North. Adams needs to stay healthy -- if he doesn't, the door swings wide open for Cal.
(2) Cal
Grambling was not a real test, but the improvement on defense was obvious, Goff is the real deal, and the wide receivers will give defensive coordinators throughout the conference nightmares. Offensive line is a concern, and unfortunately will limit what could otherwise be one of the nation's premiere offenses.
(3) Stanford
Embarrassing start to the season for Stanford but I don't expect them to look this bad all year. Talented but flawed team with a defense that will keep them in games. I expect them to limp their way to minor bowl eligibility.
(4) Washington
Rebuilding time for UW. Playing Browning now will pay dividends in the future, but will cost them games now. Like Stanford, UW has a good enough defense to stay in games and beat bad teams.
(5) Washington State
Ugly loss to Portland State suggests many of the same things that Cal's near-loss to Portland State suggested in 2013. It is going to get ugly in Pullman this year.
(6) Oregon State
Starting from the bottom in Corvallis. Nice that they were able to start with a win, but Anderson has his work cut out for him.
Pac 12 South
(1) UCLA
Rosen's inexperience was supposed to be their weakness this year. Not so much. He was VERY impressive against a decent Virginia team -- if this is what Rosen looks like in his very first game, he is going to get scary good with a season or two under his belt. As for this year, with solid talent supporting him on offense and one of the better defenses in the conference, Rosen appears more than good enough to lead UCLA to a very strong season.
(2) USC
SC should be a little better than UCLA on paper, but I have never been a big believer in Kessler, and I'll take Mora over seven-win Sark, especially in light of his recent booze fueled self destruction stunt.
(3) Arizona State
Tough first week might knock them out of the top 25 for now, but this is still a good team. Traveling to Houston for a "neutral site" game against Texas A&M is no walk in the park, and the game was closer than the final score made it look, and ASU made some critical mistakes that you can't count on them to make all the time. Say what you will about Todd Graham, but the guy can coach.
(4) Utah
Typical Whittingham team -- solid all around, capable of beating anyone in the conference if they don't bring their A game, but I still don't see the talent necessary to beat the upper half of the conference. Utah won't beat themselves, but four or five teams will beat them.
(5) Arizona
Reminds me a bit of Cal last year -- capable offense but suspect defense. Still, this is not a bad team and I would be surprised if they don't reach six wins and a minor bowl.
(6) Colorado
Not as bad as they looked in Hawai'i, but still not good enough to compete in the Pac 12 South. Buffs are still looking for a way out of the Pac 12 cellar, and it doesn't look like they will find it this year.
Here is where I think the conference as a whole shakes out:
Potential Playoff Teams:
(1) Oregon
(2) UCLA
(3) USC
Dark Horse Conference Championship Contenders:
(4) Arizona State
(5) Cal
Should Play in a Bowl:
(6) Utah
(7) Stanford
(8) Arizona
Better Luck Next Year:
(9) Washington
(10) Washington State
(11) Colorado
(12) Oregon State
Pac 12 North
(1) Oregon
Looking more vulnerable than they have in years, particularly on defense, but still should be good enough to win a relatively weak Pac 12 North. Adams needs to stay healthy -- if he doesn't, the door swings wide open for Cal.
(2) Cal
Grambling was not a real test, but the improvement on defense was obvious, Goff is the real deal, and the wide receivers will give defensive coordinators throughout the conference nightmares. Offensive line is a concern, and unfortunately will limit what could otherwise be one of the nation's premiere offenses.
(3) Stanford
Embarrassing start to the season for Stanford but I don't expect them to look this bad all year. Talented but flawed team with a defense that will keep them in games. I expect them to limp their way to minor bowl eligibility.
(4) Washington
Rebuilding time for UW. Playing Browning now will pay dividends in the future, but will cost them games now. Like Stanford, UW has a good enough defense to stay in games and beat bad teams.
(5) Washington State
Ugly loss to Portland State suggests many of the same things that Cal's near-loss to Portland State suggested in 2013. It is going to get ugly in Pullman this year.
(6) Oregon State
Starting from the bottom in Corvallis. Nice that they were able to start with a win, but Anderson has his work cut out for him.
Pac 12 South
(1) UCLA
Rosen's inexperience was supposed to be their weakness this year. Not so much. He was VERY impressive against a decent Virginia team -- if this is what Rosen looks like in his very first game, he is going to get scary good with a season or two under his belt. As for this year, with solid talent supporting him on offense and one of the better defenses in the conference, Rosen appears more than good enough to lead UCLA to a very strong season.
(2) USC
SC should be a little better than UCLA on paper, but I have never been a big believer in Kessler, and I'll take Mora over seven-win Sark, especially in light of his recent booze fueled self destruction stunt.
(3) Arizona State
Tough first week might knock them out of the top 25 for now, but this is still a good team. Traveling to Houston for a "neutral site" game against Texas A&M is no walk in the park, and the game was closer than the final score made it look, and ASU made some critical mistakes that you can't count on them to make all the time. Say what you will about Todd Graham, but the guy can coach.
(4) Utah
Typical Whittingham team -- solid all around, capable of beating anyone in the conference if they don't bring their A game, but I still don't see the talent necessary to beat the upper half of the conference. Utah won't beat themselves, but four or five teams will beat them.
(5) Arizona
Reminds me a bit of Cal last year -- capable offense but suspect defense. Still, this is not a bad team and I would be surprised if they don't reach six wins and a minor bowl.
(6) Colorado
Not as bad as they looked in Hawai'i, but still not good enough to compete in the Pac 12 South. Buffs are still looking for a way out of the Pac 12 cellar, and it doesn't look like they will find it this year.
Here is where I think the conference as a whole shakes out:
Potential Playoff Teams:
(1) Oregon
(2) UCLA
(3) USC
Dark Horse Conference Championship Contenders:
(4) Arizona State
(5) Cal
Should Play in a Bowl:
(6) Utah
(7) Stanford
(8) Arizona
Better Luck Next Year:
(9) Washington
(10) Washington State
(11) Colorado
(12) Oregon State
