What I'm sure is on everybody's minds is what happens to the 2017 Cal men's basketball recruiting class IF Cuonzo Martin leaves for either Illinois or Missouri? While it's still an IF at this point, I feel like this is something I should address. I have not contacted any commits about this topic because I don't think there's a point in doing so unless Martin actually leaves. I have my reasons.
But, given my interactions with all of them and having followed their recruitment closely, I feel like I have a pretty good sense for what each of them would likely do. At least, I feel like I have a good enough sense to comment about it. Anyways, I will go through each commit and give my honest thoughts on what I think he'll do in the event that Cuonzo Martin leaves.
4-star PG/SG Jemarl Baker, Jr.: Jemarl Baker, Jr. committed to Cal on December 31, 2015. He's been committed to Cal for a long long time it feels like. Given that he's been off the recruiting market for so long and been committed to Cal for so long, I feel like odds are very good he'd be retained.
He's a west coast kid from Eleanor Roosevelt High School in Corona, California, which is also a plus. In addition, his Earl Watson Elite teammate Juhwan Harris-Dyson is committed. Given his relationship with Juhwan, that could help him stay on board and of course the same goes for Juhwan.
3-star SG Juhwan Harris-Dyson: Juhwan Harris-Dyson committed to Cal in July of 2016. He's been off the recruiting market for a while, too but not as long as Jemarl Baker, Jr. Given that Juhwan is more cut out of the mold of Cuonzo Martin, just in terms of being a defensive oriented wing, I think Cuonzo would try harder to retain him and get him to come to whatever school he's at. That makes it less likely he'd stay at Cal.
At the same time, his relationship with Jemarl Baker, Jr. is a plus and could prove to play a huge role in getting him to stay at Cal. They are very close friends and so I could see this being a case where they remain committed to staying with each other and thus staying at Cal.
The bottom line with Juhwan Harris-Dyson is if Jemarl Baker, Jr. decides to stay at Cal, I think odds are pretty good he stays as well. Given that I think odds are good Jemarl stays, I think there are very good odds Cal is able to hang to both dudes in the even that Martin leaves.
3-star SG Trevin Knell: The Trevin Knell situation is tricky since he's going to go on his LDS mission first. His mission means that he won't be playing at Cal until the 2019 season. I know of an LDS missionary who flipped in football from Oregon State to BYU while on his mission due to a coaching change. But in that case, he was really close with Kalani Sitake, who left Oregon State to take the BYU job so that was a different kind of case.
Still, the two year mission means Trevin would have plenty of time to think about what he wants to do. I think what makes me feel optimistic that Trevin stays is that he has a 4.0 GPA and really values the academic value of a UC Berkeley degree. BYU didn't offer him a scholarship and didn't appear to be expressing serious interest in him, so they don't appear to be a threat at this time. Utah likewise flirted with him, but no offer. The bottom line with Trevin Knell is I think he'd stay with Cal because they were his top offer and he does value the academics that Cal offers.
3-star SF Justice Sueing: Utah really liked Justice Sueing and was the biggest threat during his recruitment. Utah offered along with Cal, Hawaii, and St. Mary's. Cal didn't recruit him for that long and so if Cuonzo Martin leaves, I think Sueing flips to Utah if they have an open scholarship for him. If Utah doesn't have an open scholarship available, then I think he'd stay with Cal, but Saint Mary's would be an attractive option as well.
Of course if Cal hires Saint Mary's head coach Randy Bennett, Bennett probably keeps Sueing on board. So, that's one wild card that could make things interesting. But unless that happens, my money is on Sueing flipping to Utah if at all possible.
Grant Anticevich: I think if Cuonzo Martin leaves Cal, there are good odds Anticevich flips to Davidson or follows Cuonzo Martin to either Illinois or Missouri. He really liked Davidson and had a good relationship with their staff. He is a smart kid who wants to major in psychology and seems to value a UC Berkeley degree, so that could keep him at Cal. But, even so, he seems like a kid who really chose Cal because of his relationship with the staff.
So, with that in mind, odds are very good he either flips to where Cuonzo goes or flips to Davidson. I think odds are very good he'd be gone, but the academic piece and Cal's status in the Pac-12 could entice him to stay. I just don't see it as the likely scenario.
The bottom line is I think Jemarl Baker, Jr., Juhwan Harris-Dyson, and Trevin Knell stay if Cuonzo Martin leaves and I think Justice Sueing and Grant Anticevich are gone.
Couple other notes: Marcus Lee isn't going anywhere. He's on board at Cal for next season. He's already burned up a year of eligibility sitting out, so he's firmly staying with Cal. I think he chose Cal more because of the proximity to home than his relationship with the staff. That's my sense of things. He wanted to be close to home and compete in a good conference like the Pac-12.
Marcus Lee also tweeted out that next year Cal will win a national championship just like his Kentucky team did after losing in the NIT. That won't happen, obviously, but his tweet sent a firm message that he is pumped to play for Cal next season. Cal offers him good NBA preparation in the Pac-12 and close proximity to home. No worries on Marcus Lee.
If Cuonzo Martin goes to Illinois or Missouri, look for him to scoop up Alec Hickman and reunite with him.
As for the 2018 class, a Cuonzo Martin departure would really shake things up there. I do think Jordan Brown would still give Cal a serious look, but UCLA would suddenly be in the driver's seat to land him.
But, given my interactions with all of them and having followed their recruitment closely, I feel like I have a pretty good sense for what each of them would likely do. At least, I feel like I have a good enough sense to comment about it. Anyways, I will go through each commit and give my honest thoughts on what I think he'll do in the event that Cuonzo Martin leaves.
4-star PG/SG Jemarl Baker, Jr.: Jemarl Baker, Jr. committed to Cal on December 31, 2015. He's been committed to Cal for a long long time it feels like. Given that he's been off the recruiting market for so long and been committed to Cal for so long, I feel like odds are very good he'd be retained.
He's a west coast kid from Eleanor Roosevelt High School in Corona, California, which is also a plus. In addition, his Earl Watson Elite teammate Juhwan Harris-Dyson is committed. Given his relationship with Juhwan, that could help him stay on board and of course the same goes for Juhwan.
3-star SG Juhwan Harris-Dyson: Juhwan Harris-Dyson committed to Cal in July of 2016. He's been off the recruiting market for a while, too but not as long as Jemarl Baker, Jr. Given that Juhwan is more cut out of the mold of Cuonzo Martin, just in terms of being a defensive oriented wing, I think Cuonzo would try harder to retain him and get him to come to whatever school he's at. That makes it less likely he'd stay at Cal.
At the same time, his relationship with Jemarl Baker, Jr. is a plus and could prove to play a huge role in getting him to stay at Cal. They are very close friends and so I could see this being a case where they remain committed to staying with each other and thus staying at Cal.
The bottom line with Juhwan Harris-Dyson is if Jemarl Baker, Jr. decides to stay at Cal, I think odds are pretty good he stays as well. Given that I think odds are good Jemarl stays, I think there are very good odds Cal is able to hang to both dudes in the even that Martin leaves.
3-star SG Trevin Knell: The Trevin Knell situation is tricky since he's going to go on his LDS mission first. His mission means that he won't be playing at Cal until the 2019 season. I know of an LDS missionary who flipped in football from Oregon State to BYU while on his mission due to a coaching change. But in that case, he was really close with Kalani Sitake, who left Oregon State to take the BYU job so that was a different kind of case.
Still, the two year mission means Trevin would have plenty of time to think about what he wants to do. I think what makes me feel optimistic that Trevin stays is that he has a 4.0 GPA and really values the academic value of a UC Berkeley degree. BYU didn't offer him a scholarship and didn't appear to be expressing serious interest in him, so they don't appear to be a threat at this time. Utah likewise flirted with him, but no offer. The bottom line with Trevin Knell is I think he'd stay with Cal because they were his top offer and he does value the academics that Cal offers.
3-star SF Justice Sueing: Utah really liked Justice Sueing and was the biggest threat during his recruitment. Utah offered along with Cal, Hawaii, and St. Mary's. Cal didn't recruit him for that long and so if Cuonzo Martin leaves, I think Sueing flips to Utah if they have an open scholarship for him. If Utah doesn't have an open scholarship available, then I think he'd stay with Cal, but Saint Mary's would be an attractive option as well.
Of course if Cal hires Saint Mary's head coach Randy Bennett, Bennett probably keeps Sueing on board. So, that's one wild card that could make things interesting. But unless that happens, my money is on Sueing flipping to Utah if at all possible.
Grant Anticevich: I think if Cuonzo Martin leaves Cal, there are good odds Anticevich flips to Davidson or follows Cuonzo Martin to either Illinois or Missouri. He really liked Davidson and had a good relationship with their staff. He is a smart kid who wants to major in psychology and seems to value a UC Berkeley degree, so that could keep him at Cal. But, even so, he seems like a kid who really chose Cal because of his relationship with the staff.
So, with that in mind, odds are very good he either flips to where Cuonzo goes or flips to Davidson. I think odds are very good he'd be gone, but the academic piece and Cal's status in the Pac-12 could entice him to stay. I just don't see it as the likely scenario.
The bottom line is I think Jemarl Baker, Jr., Juhwan Harris-Dyson, and Trevin Knell stay if Cuonzo Martin leaves and I think Justice Sueing and Grant Anticevich are gone.
Couple other notes: Marcus Lee isn't going anywhere. He's on board at Cal for next season. He's already burned up a year of eligibility sitting out, so he's firmly staying with Cal. I think he chose Cal more because of the proximity to home than his relationship with the staff. That's my sense of things. He wanted to be close to home and compete in a good conference like the Pac-12.
Marcus Lee also tweeted out that next year Cal will win a national championship just like his Kentucky team did after losing in the NIT. That won't happen, obviously, but his tweet sent a firm message that he is pumped to play for Cal next season. Cal offers him good NBA preparation in the Pac-12 and close proximity to home. No worries on Marcus Lee.
If Cuonzo Martin goes to Illinois or Missouri, look for him to scoop up Alec Hickman and reunite with him.
As for the 2018 class, a Cuonzo Martin departure would really shake things up there. I do think Jordan Brown would still give Cal a serious look, but UCLA would suddenly be in the driver's seat to land him.
