2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions
Ok, before the NCAA Tournament starts, here are my key predictions. Like Spinal Tap, my list goes to 11.
#1. No 14 seeds, 15 seeds, or 16 seeds will win a game: This isn't all that gutsy, but upon looking at the brackets and analyzing the match ups, I didn't see one 14, 15, or 16 seed advancing past the first round. If you picked a team seeded 3, 2, or 1 to win it all, you can feel pretty safe about the first round.
#2. There will still be upsets! While I don't have any seeds 14-16 finding success, I do see a combination of seeds 13-10 pulling off some upsets: #13 Vermont, #12 Princeton, #12 UNC-Wilmington, #11 Xavier, #10 Marquette, and #10 Wichita State are double-digit seeds that I have winning their opening round game.
I also have Vermont making it to the Sweet Sixteen. I love their RPI, defense (61.6 OPPG), and their 16-0 record in their conference. Vermont is on fire right now.
#3. No team seeded 5+ will make the Final Four: We all love it when teams seeded 5, 6, 7, 8, or even 11 (George Mason in '06) make it to the Final Four. We all love to see Cinderella stories in sports. This season however, the only teams that will be in the Final Four are teams seeded 1-4 in their region.
#4. Villanova will not repeat: The last time a school repeated as NCAA Tournament champions was the 2007 Florida Gators, who won the NCAA Tournament in 2006. It's incredibly difficult to repeat as NCAA Tournament champions and while Villanova has a great chance at doing so as a #1 seed, I don't see them making it back to the Final Four.
#5. It will be an exciting tournament, but also rather typical: With no 5+ seeds in the Final Four, this will be a rather typical NCAA Tournament. There will be a healthy amount of upsets, but once we get into the second week, most of the teams still standing will be teams that you more or less would expect to still be standing. I have two #1 seeds making it to the Final Four, a #2, and a #4.
#6. No Pac-12 teams make it to the Final Four: I cover the Pac-12 and I think the top three teams in the Pac-12 (UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona) are all excellent. However, I have my concerns about all three programs’ chances at making it to the Final Four.
UCLA: Tough draw. I have Cincinnati taking them out in the second round. The Bearcats matchup well as a slow it down, grind it out type of team that allows just 60.8 points per game. Cincinnati will take out UCLA early and in the process anger the pompous LaVar Ball.
Arizona: Sean Miller is a fantastic coach and has guided the Wildcats to four Elite Eight appearances, six Sweet 16 bids, and nine NCAA Tournament bids. What’s missing? A trip to the Final Four. Until he gets the Wildcats over that hump, I can’t pick his team to go to the Final Four.
Oregon: Chris Boucher is a big part of what the Ducks do. He’s an absolute beast off the bench and one of the best players in the country. With him sidelined with a torn ACL, I just don’t see the Ducks being able to overcome his absence.
#7. Duke will make it to the Final Four: Duke is the #2 seed I have making it to the Final Four. The Blue Devils have an RPI of #6 and a BPI of #6 as well as an impressive 8-4 record against Top 25 teams. Duke has seen a lot of tough teams and is very battle tested.
Duke has a scary good 1-2 punch with sophomore guard Luke Kennard (20.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game) and 5-star freshman forward Jayson Tatum (16.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game) leading the charge. The Blue Devils to the Final Four? Book it!
#8. Gonzaga will make it to the Final Four: I know a lot of people have questions about #1 seed Gonzaga given that they play in the WCC, which is a much softer conference than the likes of the ACC, Big XII, and Big East. Those questions are very valid.
That said, Gonzaga is no joke or product of a weak schedule. The Zags have an RPI of #8 and they have a very impressive 6-0 record against Top 25 teams. They defend well (61.2 OPPG) and they know how to score the rock as well (84.6 PPG).
I also think their loss at home to BYU takes a lot of pressure off of them since they don’t have the weight of an undefeated season on their shoulders. That loss was a blessing in disguise and allows them to just focus on winning the tournament as opposed to pursuing perfection in the process.
Lastly on Gonzaga, they got a very favorable draw. I have them knocking off West Virginia in the Sweet 16 and Florida State in the Elite 8 (Good news for Cal fans who want to usher in the Dennis Gates era). The Zags should be favored to win both of those games. If you are a Gonzaga fan, you can order your flights to Glendale now.
#9. Kansas will make it to the Final Four: I’m the first one to joke “Rock Choke Jayhawk”, but I have no reason to think Kansas will fail to make the Final Four. The Jayhawks have an RPI of #3, a BPI of #10 and they are 6-2 against Top 25 teams in the country. They are a legit threat to win it all as a #1 seed.
Plus, the Jayhawks are led by superstar freshman Josh Jackson who played for Prolific Prep in Napa California along with a few other college basketball players who I’ve gotten to know pretty well during my time with Rivals.
The bottom line with Kansas is that these guys are for real and should feel confident about making it to the Final Four. If you are a Kansas Jayhawks fan, don’t even second-guess yourself about purchasing Final Four tickets. The Jayhawks will be there waiting for you in Glendale.
#10. Butler will make it to the Final Four: Butler might be a #4 seed, but they are not a team to overlook. The Bulldogs have an RPI of 14 and are 4-0 against Top 25 teams. The Big East was very good this year and the Bulldogs held their own just fine.
Butler shoots well from three-point range (36.3%) and they knock down their free throws really well (74.0%) which is always key come March.
I have Butler taking out #1 seeded North Carolina in the Elite Eight. UNC is really good, but their 5-4 record against Top 25 teams tells me they are vulnerable.
#11. National Championship score: Duke 79 Kansas 75. That’s right, I have the Blue Devils cutting down the nets when it is all said and done. Duke has all the pieces this year. Great coaching, talent, and experience. This will be the Blue Devils’ year.
Ok, before the NCAA Tournament starts, here are my key predictions. Like Spinal Tap, my list goes to 11.
#1. No 14 seeds, 15 seeds, or 16 seeds will win a game: This isn't all that gutsy, but upon looking at the brackets and analyzing the match ups, I didn't see one 14, 15, or 16 seed advancing past the first round. If you picked a team seeded 3, 2, or 1 to win it all, you can feel pretty safe about the first round.
#2. There will still be upsets! While I don't have any seeds 14-16 finding success, I do see a combination of seeds 13-10 pulling off some upsets: #13 Vermont, #12 Princeton, #12 UNC-Wilmington, #11 Xavier, #10 Marquette, and #10 Wichita State are double-digit seeds that I have winning their opening round game.
I also have Vermont making it to the Sweet Sixteen. I love their RPI, defense (61.6 OPPG), and their 16-0 record in their conference. Vermont is on fire right now.
#3. No team seeded 5+ will make the Final Four: We all love it when teams seeded 5, 6, 7, 8, or even 11 (George Mason in '06) make it to the Final Four. We all love to see Cinderella stories in sports. This season however, the only teams that will be in the Final Four are teams seeded 1-4 in their region.
#4. Villanova will not repeat: The last time a school repeated as NCAA Tournament champions was the 2007 Florida Gators, who won the NCAA Tournament in 2006. It's incredibly difficult to repeat as NCAA Tournament champions and while Villanova has a great chance at doing so as a #1 seed, I don't see them making it back to the Final Four.
#5. It will be an exciting tournament, but also rather typical: With no 5+ seeds in the Final Four, this will be a rather typical NCAA Tournament. There will be a healthy amount of upsets, but once we get into the second week, most of the teams still standing will be teams that you more or less would expect to still be standing. I have two #1 seeds making it to the Final Four, a #2, and a #4.
#6. No Pac-12 teams make it to the Final Four: I cover the Pac-12 and I think the top three teams in the Pac-12 (UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona) are all excellent. However, I have my concerns about all three programs’ chances at making it to the Final Four.
UCLA: Tough draw. I have Cincinnati taking them out in the second round. The Bearcats matchup well as a slow it down, grind it out type of team that allows just 60.8 points per game. Cincinnati will take out UCLA early and in the process anger the pompous LaVar Ball.
Arizona: Sean Miller is a fantastic coach and has guided the Wildcats to four Elite Eight appearances, six Sweet 16 bids, and nine NCAA Tournament bids. What’s missing? A trip to the Final Four. Until he gets the Wildcats over that hump, I can’t pick his team to go to the Final Four.
Oregon: Chris Boucher is a big part of what the Ducks do. He’s an absolute beast off the bench and one of the best players in the country. With him sidelined with a torn ACL, I just don’t see the Ducks being able to overcome his absence.
#7. Duke will make it to the Final Four: Duke is the #2 seed I have making it to the Final Four. The Blue Devils have an RPI of #6 and a BPI of #6 as well as an impressive 8-4 record against Top 25 teams. Duke has seen a lot of tough teams and is very battle tested.
Duke has a scary good 1-2 punch with sophomore guard Luke Kennard (20.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game) and 5-star freshman forward Jayson Tatum (16.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game) leading the charge. The Blue Devils to the Final Four? Book it!
#8. Gonzaga will make it to the Final Four: I know a lot of people have questions about #1 seed Gonzaga given that they play in the WCC, which is a much softer conference than the likes of the ACC, Big XII, and Big East. Those questions are very valid.
That said, Gonzaga is no joke or product of a weak schedule. The Zags have an RPI of #8 and they have a very impressive 6-0 record against Top 25 teams. They defend well (61.2 OPPG) and they know how to score the rock as well (84.6 PPG).
I also think their loss at home to BYU takes a lot of pressure off of them since they don’t have the weight of an undefeated season on their shoulders. That loss was a blessing in disguise and allows them to just focus on winning the tournament as opposed to pursuing perfection in the process.
Lastly on Gonzaga, they got a very favorable draw. I have them knocking off West Virginia in the Sweet 16 and Florida State in the Elite 8 (Good news for Cal fans who want to usher in the Dennis Gates era). The Zags should be favored to win both of those games. If you are a Gonzaga fan, you can order your flights to Glendale now.
#9. Kansas will make it to the Final Four: I’m the first one to joke “Rock Choke Jayhawk”, but I have no reason to think Kansas will fail to make the Final Four. The Jayhawks have an RPI of #3, a BPI of #10 and they are 6-2 against Top 25 teams in the country. They are a legit threat to win it all as a #1 seed.
Plus, the Jayhawks are led by superstar freshman Josh Jackson who played for Prolific Prep in Napa California along with a few other college basketball players who I’ve gotten to know pretty well during my time with Rivals.
The bottom line with Kansas is that these guys are for real and should feel confident about making it to the Final Four. If you are a Kansas Jayhawks fan, don’t even second-guess yourself about purchasing Final Four tickets. The Jayhawks will be there waiting for you in Glendale.
#10. Butler will make it to the Final Four: Butler might be a #4 seed, but they are not a team to overlook. The Bulldogs have an RPI of 14 and are 4-0 against Top 25 teams. The Big East was very good this year and the Bulldogs held their own just fine.
Butler shoots well from three-point range (36.3%) and they knock down their free throws really well (74.0%) which is always key come March.
I have Butler taking out #1 seeded North Carolina in the Elite Eight. UNC is really good, but their 5-4 record against Top 25 teams tells me they are vulnerable.
#11. National Championship score: Duke 79 Kansas 75. That’s right, I have the Blue Devils cutting down the nets when it is all said and done. Duke has all the pieces this year. Great coaching, talent, and experience. This will be the Blue Devils’ year.
