With Kai Millner transferring, got me thinking how difficult and low the odds are for a HS QB recruit ever becoming a starter. Specifically, I believe the odds of a HS QB signing with a P-5 school and eventually starting for the school they signed with is not only low but has become dramatically lower since the portal. It seems a majority of starters are now transfers, often from lower level schools. If Chandler Rogers signs with us and becomes our starting QB, it's yet another example. Anyway, I've tracked our HS QB recruits since 1986...
First, those that became starters for us:
Troy Taylor (class of 86), Mike Pawlawski (87), Dave Barr (90), Pat Barnes (93), Kyle Boller (99), Nate Longshore (04), Kevin Riley (06), Jared Goff (13), Ross Bowers (15), Chase Garbers (17)
Those that didn't:
Mike Beebe (88), Perry Klein (89), Todd Preston (91), Ziv Gottliev (92), Trevor Thompson (94), Mike Murphy (95), Terry Hess and Brad Steele (96), Samuel Clemons (97), David Page (98), Ryan Sorahan (99), Reggie Robertson (01), Richard Schwartz (01), Steve Levy (02), Cary Dove (03), Kyle Reed (05), Brock Mansion (07), Beau Sweeney (08), Allan Bridgford (09), Austin Hinder (10), Kyle Boehm (11), Zach Kline (12), Luke Rubenzer and Chase Forrest (14), Max Gilliam and Vic Viramontes (16), Spencer Brasche (19), Jaden Casey and Zach Johnson (20), Kai Millner (21) and Fernando Mendoza (tbd, 22).
10 out of 32 high school recruits became starters. I don't think we are that unusual tbh. I guess my point is that Millner leaving is par for the course, historically, and even more common going forward where QB1 is most likely a transfer or the 1/5 HS qb recruit to "make it".
First, those that became starters for us:
Troy Taylor (class of 86), Mike Pawlawski (87), Dave Barr (90), Pat Barnes (93), Kyle Boller (99), Nate Longshore (04), Kevin Riley (06), Jared Goff (13), Ross Bowers (15), Chase Garbers (17)
Those that didn't:
Mike Beebe (88), Perry Klein (89), Todd Preston (91), Ziv Gottliev (92), Trevor Thompson (94), Mike Murphy (95), Terry Hess and Brad Steele (96), Samuel Clemons (97), David Page (98), Ryan Sorahan (99), Reggie Robertson (01), Richard Schwartz (01), Steve Levy (02), Cary Dove (03), Kyle Reed (05), Brock Mansion (07), Beau Sweeney (08), Allan Bridgford (09), Austin Hinder (10), Kyle Boehm (11), Zach Kline (12), Luke Rubenzer and Chase Forrest (14), Max Gilliam and Vic Viramontes (16), Spencer Brasche (19), Jaden Casey and Zach Johnson (20), Kai Millner (21) and Fernando Mendoza (tbd, 22).
10 out of 32 high school recruits became starters. I don't think we are that unusual tbh. I guess my point is that Millner leaving is par for the course, historically, and even more common going forward where QB1 is most likely a transfer or the 1/5 HS qb recruit to "make it".
