I wanted to provide a breakdown/statistical analysis of what specific areas Cal needs to improve on the most if they want to win 15 games this upcoming season, which I think is doable for them. The easy answer of course is that Cal needs to get better in all areas, but I wanted to highlight what areas in particular need the most attention.
#1. Defense: When comparing the 2017-18 squad with the 2016-17 squad, the biggest difference between the two teams is defense. In Cuonzo Martin’s final year, Cal held opponents to 40.0% shooting from the field (15th in the country), 32.8% shooting from 3-point range (63rd), and 63.4 points per game (18th). As an extension of those numbers, Cal did a really good job controlling the glass and protecting the rim with 929 defensive rebounds (38th) and 155 blocks (45th).
In Wyking Jones’ first year on the job, Cal was much worse, allowing opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field (312th) and 39.9% from 3-point range (347th) while scoring 77.6 points per game (294th). In terms of Cal’s ability to control the paint, under Wyking Jones they grabbed 714 defensive rebounds (324th) and blocked 154 shots (38th). The only areas where Cal was either on par or better was shot blocks and steals. Cal wasn’t great at getting steals last season, but their 220 steals ranked them 112th in the country as opposed to the previous year in which they ranked 289th with 165 steals.
If Wyking Jones is to lead Cal to 15 wins next season, the defense needs to be much better. The interior defense probably won’t be as good with Kingsley Okoroh gone. Neither Connor Vanover, Andre Kelly, nor Grant Anticevich scream rim protector right now. However, the perimeter defense has the chance to be much better with Paris Austin at point guard and the additional bodies of Matt Bradley and Jacobi Gordon. Juhwan Harris-Dyson was supposed to be a killer perimeter defender in his first year, but we never saw him play up to his full potential thanks to his illness. If he can stay healthy and play like the guy we all expected him to be, that alone will make the perimeter defense much better.
As for the rebounding, the lack of size is concerning, but this is a more athletic team than last year thanks to the additions of both Paris Austin and the incoming freshmen. As a result of having more athletic guys, Cal should be able to force more difficult shots, especially on the perimeter. The rebounding has the chance to actually be better, but guys will really need to commit to crashing the boards in order to have improved rebounding numbers on defense.
#2. Taking care of the ball: Last season, Cal really suffered from lacking a true point guard and it shows in their statistics. Cal produced only 313 assists (346th) and a whopping 470 turnovers (298th). Cal flat out sucked last year when it came to taking care of the basketball, which is why opponents had such an easy time scoring on them in transition. Don Coleman got a lot of the blame for Cal’s poor ball security (60 turnovers), but he wasn’t the only one to blame. Darius McNeill actually turned the ball over even more frequently with 70 turnovers and Marcus Lee led all Cal players in turnovers with 85. Justice Sueing had his share of turnovers as well with 68, so all around Cal really struggled to take care of the rock.
Hopefully for Cal, with Paris Austin running the point and Darius McNeill playing off the ball, the offense will run much better and there will be fewer turnovers as a result. What would also really help Cal is if they found ways to diversify their offensive schemes more and not rely too heavily on one particular option. Too often, Cal pounded the ball inside to Marcus Lee, which resulted in a ton of turnovers. If Paris Austin can find guys in the right spots and create easy looks for Andre Kelly, Connor Vanover, and Grant Anticevich inside, Cal should see their assist numbers go up and their turnover numbers go down.
#3. Perimeter shooting: Cal’s shooting numbers across the board were really bad last season. They shot 40.6% from the field (334th), 28.6% shooting from 3-point range (349th), and 67.5% (303rd) from the foul line. They only scored 67.7 points per game (306th) last season and really did not do much to instill fear in their opponents when they had the ball.
If Cal can have improved shooting from beyond the arc, that should free things up inside. The player who has the potential to really do damage from beyond the arc is Darius McNeill, who set the school freshman 3-point record with 67 threes. By playing off the ball alongside Paris Austin, McNeill could eclipse that record with ease. Justice Sueing was also a pleasant surprise from beyond the arc last season with 42 made threes on the season, so he too should look to have improved shooting from beyond the arc.
Two players can’t carry the entire 3-point shooting load, so it will be imperative for everyone to chip in when they can. In order for this to happen, there will need to be good ball movement that creates open looks for everyone. Hopefully someone else can be a pleasant surprise from beyond the arc like Jacobi Gordon, Matt Bradley, or Paris Austin, who shot a dismal 23.2% from beyond the arc in his first two years at Boise State. If Cal could get even one more guy to find some consistency from 3-point range to go along with McNeill and Sueing, that would help a ton.
#4. Areas where Cal needs to remain strong: As bad as Cal was last year, there were some areas where they were actually decent. Cal was good at protecting the rim, offensive rebounding, and getting to the foul line. Cal had 426 offensive rebounds last season (21st) and got to the foul line 717 times (74th). If Cal can improve on the areas above while still doing a decent job in these three areas, that will also be huge.
Steals is the one statistical category where Cal was sort of in the middle. Their 220 steals wasn’t great, but it wasn’t bad either. If Cal could put themselves into the top 75 in the country in that category, that would be really nice. The potential to do it is definitely there. Juhwan Harris-Dyson at full strength could force over two steals per game and Justice Sueing averaged a solid 1.5 steals per game last season. If Matt Bradley can play like the pit bull that he’s expected to be, Cal’s ability to force turnovers could turn into their biggest strength.
#1. Defense: When comparing the 2017-18 squad with the 2016-17 squad, the biggest difference between the two teams is defense. In Cuonzo Martin’s final year, Cal held opponents to 40.0% shooting from the field (15th in the country), 32.8% shooting from 3-point range (63rd), and 63.4 points per game (18th). As an extension of those numbers, Cal did a really good job controlling the glass and protecting the rim with 929 defensive rebounds (38th) and 155 blocks (45th).
In Wyking Jones’ first year on the job, Cal was much worse, allowing opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field (312th) and 39.9% from 3-point range (347th) while scoring 77.6 points per game (294th). In terms of Cal’s ability to control the paint, under Wyking Jones they grabbed 714 defensive rebounds (324th) and blocked 154 shots (38th). The only areas where Cal was either on par or better was shot blocks and steals. Cal wasn’t great at getting steals last season, but their 220 steals ranked them 112th in the country as opposed to the previous year in which they ranked 289th with 165 steals.
If Wyking Jones is to lead Cal to 15 wins next season, the defense needs to be much better. The interior defense probably won’t be as good with Kingsley Okoroh gone. Neither Connor Vanover, Andre Kelly, nor Grant Anticevich scream rim protector right now. However, the perimeter defense has the chance to be much better with Paris Austin at point guard and the additional bodies of Matt Bradley and Jacobi Gordon. Juhwan Harris-Dyson was supposed to be a killer perimeter defender in his first year, but we never saw him play up to his full potential thanks to his illness. If he can stay healthy and play like the guy we all expected him to be, that alone will make the perimeter defense much better.
As for the rebounding, the lack of size is concerning, but this is a more athletic team than last year thanks to the additions of both Paris Austin and the incoming freshmen. As a result of having more athletic guys, Cal should be able to force more difficult shots, especially on the perimeter. The rebounding has the chance to actually be better, but guys will really need to commit to crashing the boards in order to have improved rebounding numbers on defense.
#2. Taking care of the ball: Last season, Cal really suffered from lacking a true point guard and it shows in their statistics. Cal produced only 313 assists (346th) and a whopping 470 turnovers (298th). Cal flat out sucked last year when it came to taking care of the basketball, which is why opponents had such an easy time scoring on them in transition. Don Coleman got a lot of the blame for Cal’s poor ball security (60 turnovers), but he wasn’t the only one to blame. Darius McNeill actually turned the ball over even more frequently with 70 turnovers and Marcus Lee led all Cal players in turnovers with 85. Justice Sueing had his share of turnovers as well with 68, so all around Cal really struggled to take care of the rock.
Hopefully for Cal, with Paris Austin running the point and Darius McNeill playing off the ball, the offense will run much better and there will be fewer turnovers as a result. What would also really help Cal is if they found ways to diversify their offensive schemes more and not rely too heavily on one particular option. Too often, Cal pounded the ball inside to Marcus Lee, which resulted in a ton of turnovers. If Paris Austin can find guys in the right spots and create easy looks for Andre Kelly, Connor Vanover, and Grant Anticevich inside, Cal should see their assist numbers go up and their turnover numbers go down.
#3. Perimeter shooting: Cal’s shooting numbers across the board were really bad last season. They shot 40.6% from the field (334th), 28.6% shooting from 3-point range (349th), and 67.5% (303rd) from the foul line. They only scored 67.7 points per game (306th) last season and really did not do much to instill fear in their opponents when they had the ball.
If Cal can have improved shooting from beyond the arc, that should free things up inside. The player who has the potential to really do damage from beyond the arc is Darius McNeill, who set the school freshman 3-point record with 67 threes. By playing off the ball alongside Paris Austin, McNeill could eclipse that record with ease. Justice Sueing was also a pleasant surprise from beyond the arc last season with 42 made threes on the season, so he too should look to have improved shooting from beyond the arc.
Two players can’t carry the entire 3-point shooting load, so it will be imperative for everyone to chip in when they can. In order for this to happen, there will need to be good ball movement that creates open looks for everyone. Hopefully someone else can be a pleasant surprise from beyond the arc like Jacobi Gordon, Matt Bradley, or Paris Austin, who shot a dismal 23.2% from beyond the arc in his first two years at Boise State. If Cal could get even one more guy to find some consistency from 3-point range to go along with McNeill and Sueing, that would help a ton.
#4. Areas where Cal needs to remain strong: As bad as Cal was last year, there were some areas where they were actually decent. Cal was good at protecting the rim, offensive rebounding, and getting to the foul line. Cal had 426 offensive rebounds last season (21st) and got to the foul line 717 times (74th). If Cal can improve on the areas above while still doing a decent job in these three areas, that will also be huge.
Steals is the one statistical category where Cal was sort of in the middle. Their 220 steals wasn’t great, but it wasn’t bad either. If Cal could put themselves into the top 75 in the country in that category, that would be really nice. The potential to do it is definitely there. Juhwan Harris-Dyson at full strength could force over two steals per game and Justice Sueing averaged a solid 1.5 steals per game last season. If Matt Bradley can play like the pit bull that he’s expected to be, Cal’s ability to force turnovers could turn into their biggest strength.
