Up/Down/Sideways
Arizona: Down. I'm not sure 2015 wasn't a mirage of close wins, some really good injury breaks, etc. They did not get better as the season wore on, in fact quite the opposite. They lost a lot next year, especially on what was a very good OL as well as two starters on the DL and arguably 3 of their top 4 defensive players. I think they drift back to the 7-5 region. Solomon is not bad and Wilson is a stud and they have plenty of horses at WR, the OL will be the key. Defensively, Scooby Wright is an AA but I don't see the horses beyond him to be a top 5 P12 defense.
Arizona State: Sideways Graham is convincing me that I had him wrong. I thought they would struggle in 2014 but they won 9 games. They return a lot on both side of the ball but QB and OL are questions. Their defense was surprisingly solid and he has recruited good athletes there. My sense is they are solid again 8/9 wins and perhaps even better if Bercovi steps up at QB.
California: Up. 17 returning starters, a ton of senior leadership. An offensive system that's starting to hum and the 2nd year under a competent DC. The offense could be very special and the defensive almost has to improve. I like Dykes last two classes so there's a nice influx of new talent to go with a large group of veterans. Team chemistry looks solid and there are plenty of leaders on both sides of the ball. Expectations are for 8+ wins.
Colorado: Up. Plenty of returning starters, third year under MM and some signs of life last year. I think they surprise some people this year but I don't see a big breakout year. More like 5 wins. Still at or near the bottom of the Pac12
Oregon: Down. They lose 9 starters including the Heisman trophy winning QB. Another year removed from Chip Kelly as well. The big losses are in the trenches with 3 starters lost on the OL and 2 on their DL. Plenty of speed at the skill positions and a proven offensive system but I see a meaningful step back for Oregon from elite to just good. Would not be surprised to see them lose 3 or more games in P12 play
Oregon State: Sideways. Easy to say they will be down even after only winning five games last year given they lose their QB and 9 defensive starters. However, they have a heck of football coach, especially when it comes to defense and they return all of their OL which was the achilles heel of the team. Anderson will keep them competitive while he rebuilds. 3 P12 wins and 5 overall sounds right.
Stanford: Down/Sideways. Toughest call in the conference. They have talent and their offense comes back relatively intact after a dismal year. Defense is the big question mark given heavy personnel losses but they have been the class of the P12 on defense for several years so the system and coaches aren't likely to let them slide too far. I suspect the OL and Hogan will have a better year but the defense goes to middle of the Pac. 8 wins sounds about right with more chance that goes to 6/7 than 9/10.
UCLA: Sideways. 18 returning starters on a ten win team generally says preseason top 5 team. However, there were signs that there are cracks in Mora's program last year and some coaching shuffles create question marks. The three players they lost were all studs and it does not appear they have a good answer at QB. That last point is the key. Mora not being invincible plus subpar QB talent puts a ceiling on this team.
USC: Up. They appear loaded in terms of returning experience and talent. Scholarship restrictions are over so depth will not be a big issue. Their offense looks to be loaded with 5 returners on the OL and a good QB. Replacing Algohor and Allen will not be tough given their recruiting and their defense has 7 starters returners plus some young studs. Sarkisian is the real question mark here. If he can get out of his own way, this is a NC caliber team. I don't think he can but even despite his coaching limitations this is a 10+ win team.
Utah: Sideways/Down. They finally had a .500+ season in the Pac 12 and finished with 9 wins. They injected the team with a lot of JC kids and most of them worked out. That said, they lose a lot of athletes on both sides of the ball. Still, the OL will be a strength, they have a veteran QB and a good RB and they are rarely bad on defense. I think middle of the Pac12 sounds right again although 9 wins overall may be a stretch with only 3 non conference games (one against Michigan).
Washington: Down. Only ten returning staters and basically wholesale new OLs and DLs spell major rebuilding years for UW. I expect team chemistry and consistency to improve as Sark's talent first recruits exit and Peterson cements his foundation on the program but it won't translate to many wins. His coaching may save them from the P12 cellar but if so only by a little. This is a 3-4 win team on paper.
Washington State: Up. Along with Cal, this team may make the biggest progress in 2015. 7 starters on each side of the ball and younger talent is better than exiting starters. They need a new QB but that's never been an issue for Leach and they have to find a pass rush but I suspect we will see them in the middle of the Pac12 this year. If not, I don't think it ever works for Leach as he finds recruiting hidden gems harder to do in the Palouse than it was in Lubbock.
Arizona: Down. I'm not sure 2015 wasn't a mirage of close wins, some really good injury breaks, etc. They did not get better as the season wore on, in fact quite the opposite. They lost a lot next year, especially on what was a very good OL as well as two starters on the DL and arguably 3 of their top 4 defensive players. I think they drift back to the 7-5 region. Solomon is not bad and Wilson is a stud and they have plenty of horses at WR, the OL will be the key. Defensively, Scooby Wright is an AA but I don't see the horses beyond him to be a top 5 P12 defense.
Arizona State: Sideways Graham is convincing me that I had him wrong. I thought they would struggle in 2014 but they won 9 games. They return a lot on both side of the ball but QB and OL are questions. Their defense was surprisingly solid and he has recruited good athletes there. My sense is they are solid again 8/9 wins and perhaps even better if Bercovi steps up at QB.
California: Up. 17 returning starters, a ton of senior leadership. An offensive system that's starting to hum and the 2nd year under a competent DC. The offense could be very special and the defensive almost has to improve. I like Dykes last two classes so there's a nice influx of new talent to go with a large group of veterans. Team chemistry looks solid and there are plenty of leaders on both sides of the ball. Expectations are for 8+ wins.
Colorado: Up. Plenty of returning starters, third year under MM and some signs of life last year. I think they surprise some people this year but I don't see a big breakout year. More like 5 wins. Still at or near the bottom of the Pac12
Oregon: Down. They lose 9 starters including the Heisman trophy winning QB. Another year removed from Chip Kelly as well. The big losses are in the trenches with 3 starters lost on the OL and 2 on their DL. Plenty of speed at the skill positions and a proven offensive system but I see a meaningful step back for Oregon from elite to just good. Would not be surprised to see them lose 3 or more games in P12 play
Oregon State: Sideways. Easy to say they will be down even after only winning five games last year given they lose their QB and 9 defensive starters. However, they have a heck of football coach, especially when it comes to defense and they return all of their OL which was the achilles heel of the team. Anderson will keep them competitive while he rebuilds. 3 P12 wins and 5 overall sounds right.
Stanford: Down/Sideways. Toughest call in the conference. They have talent and their offense comes back relatively intact after a dismal year. Defense is the big question mark given heavy personnel losses but they have been the class of the P12 on defense for several years so the system and coaches aren't likely to let them slide too far. I suspect the OL and Hogan will have a better year but the defense goes to middle of the Pac. 8 wins sounds about right with more chance that goes to 6/7 than 9/10.
UCLA: Sideways. 18 returning starters on a ten win team generally says preseason top 5 team. However, there were signs that there are cracks in Mora's program last year and some coaching shuffles create question marks. The three players they lost were all studs and it does not appear they have a good answer at QB. That last point is the key. Mora not being invincible plus subpar QB talent puts a ceiling on this team.
USC: Up. They appear loaded in terms of returning experience and talent. Scholarship restrictions are over so depth will not be a big issue. Their offense looks to be loaded with 5 returners on the OL and a good QB. Replacing Algohor and Allen will not be tough given their recruiting and their defense has 7 starters returners plus some young studs. Sarkisian is the real question mark here. If he can get out of his own way, this is a NC caliber team. I don't think he can but even despite his coaching limitations this is a 10+ win team.
Utah: Sideways/Down. They finally had a .500+ season in the Pac 12 and finished with 9 wins. They injected the team with a lot of JC kids and most of them worked out. That said, they lose a lot of athletes on both sides of the ball. Still, the OL will be a strength, they have a veteran QB and a good RB and they are rarely bad on defense. I think middle of the Pac12 sounds right again although 9 wins overall may be a stretch with only 3 non conference games (one against Michigan).
Washington: Down. Only ten returning staters and basically wholesale new OLs and DLs spell major rebuilding years for UW. I expect team chemistry and consistency to improve as Sark's talent first recruits exit and Peterson cements his foundation on the program but it won't translate to many wins. His coaching may save them from the P12 cellar but if so only by a little. This is a 3-4 win team on paper.
Washington State: Up. Along with Cal, this team may make the biggest progress in 2015. 7 starters on each side of the ball and younger talent is better than exiting starters. They need a new QB but that's never been an issue for Leach and they have to find a pass rush but I suspect we will see them in the middle of the Pac12 this year. If not, I don't think it ever works for Leach as he finds recruiting hidden gems harder to do in the Palouse than it was in Lubbock.
