In general, I overweight three factors when it comes to forecasting a teams prospects: OL Play, DL Play and Coaching. If you win the LOS and you have a good coach, you're going to have a great college football team. A strong OL makes mediocre QBs look like studs and average RBs look like Heisman contenders. A great DL disrupts the other teams offense and sets up your LBs and DBs to make plays all day long. Coaching is how you judge year over year consistency when personnel turns over so much. I look at experience and talent as well.
With than in mind, here are my pre-camp (injuries and more information will come out during camp that may impact these thoughts) musings:
Pac 12 South:
- On paper, this group is well below the North in 2016 yet like the North it's going to be crowded at the top:
UCLA: Hard not to like the Bruins given a ton of returning starters and a very favorable schedule. Their OL is a risk. They have three returning starters of quality coming off a year where their YPC and sack % were very solid. A former starter returns after sitting out last year giving them 4 quality starters. After that, it's a very young and inexperienced group. You here coaches talk about wanting at least 8 or 9 solid OL going into a season, the Bruins have 4. Their DL is going to be a strength IMO with four returning starters and some good athletes. Depth is strong as well. Should be very stout against the run and good albeit not great pass rushing group. Mora is an enigma. He recruits well and for any given game can really motivate his troops. Yet, his teams are inconsistent and uneven. They often time play soft physically or make silly mental errors. I have them as the favorites in the South yet the season IMO hinges on OL health. A single injury there could derail their offense
Utah: Really like the Utes this year. They return four starters (all Sr/Jrs) on the OL with good depth behind them. Going to be far and away the strength of their offense. Their DL is also loaded with three returning starters (all upperclassmen). This is going to be a very tough group to win the LOS against this season. Skill position talent is underrated at RB and WR and they have a strong secondary. Whittingham is rock solid as he proved last year despite a lot of staff turnover. He will have great STs and will grind out close game victories.
USC: Toughest team to pick in the Pac 12. On one hand, you have a top notch OL being built with tremendous talent and now finally good experience as they return all 5 starters and all are upperclassmen. The offensive skill talent is tremendous and QB will not be an issue behind this line with this much skill to work with. The DL is a real problem. Zero returning starters and the four projected starters and 8 of the top 9 will be 1st or 2nd year players. LBs have talent but are young and are likely to get eaten alive behind this young DL. A fantastic secondary is going to be wasted IMO. I have no confidence in Helton. Was shocked at how they played late last year. They beat UCLA behind 3 TOs but otherwise looked awful against Oregon, Stanford and Wisconsin. I think USC outscores some teams but in the end their defense lets them down hard.
Colorado: You heard it here first, Colorado will finish tied or ahead of Arizona and ASU. Could easily make a bowl. 18 returning starters. OL and DL return all but one starter each. Better skill players than people think at RB and WR and in the secondary. MacIntyre has shown he will get the most out of kids and this is BY FAR his best team in Colorado. QB is a massive question mark and if Liufau can't play, the drop off is big. And the overall talent base is not ideal yet I think 5-7 wins is a given and I think you'll see them beat ASU, Arizona and OSU at a minimum in the Pac 12.
Arizona: This team has some upside as Rich Rod always seems to field a good offense and on paper they should be better on defense. The OL brings back 3 starters but was an underperforming group last year and I don't see the quality of depth or talent you want here. They are shifting to a 4-3 and I'm not sure they have the personnel to do it on defense and the scheme will create growing pains as players learn it. Rich Rod was far more overt in his flirtations to leave last offseason than Dykes and that can't help either. I think this group starts the Pac 12 going 0-4 and then it could unwind.
ASU: They are set up to have a very rough year IMO. Media is way overrating them or counting on some Todd Graham magic. Their defense was awful last year and that all out blitzing style has been solved by the Pac 12. They are athletic on defense yet the weak link is the DL. They are completely rebuilding their OL and I don't see the depth or experience to salvage that group into anything better than average. Add in a likely young QB starting and you have issues despite great skill talent. Graham can coach but I wonder if his stubbornness with his defensive system gets in the way? I see another step back year for the Devils.
P12 records:
UCLA 7-2
Utah 6-3
USC 5-4
Colorado 3-6
Arizona 3-6
ASU 3-6
The North:
Stanford: Unfortunately, they are the class of the conference. They aren't rebuilding their OL, they are reloading. 2 returning starters only but the three new starters played A LOT last year and are third year players who have been coached up. Perhaps a notch or two below last years group but still a top 25 OL nationally. People are dissing their defense but I believe it will be better than last years group. The DL features the best DL in the conference in Solomon Thomas. He'll have two HS AAs lined up at DE next to him and a NT who was a certain starter last year before getting hurt next to him. Depth is an issue here. Shaw is the real deal. Steady and methodical. Last year he showed he could evolve from his overly conservative style to his credit. They have the best all purpose back in the country and a backup who is star in waiting. Their secondary is fantastic as well.
UW: I'm less pumped on them than most. I'm just not sold on their OL. Three starters who will be Sophomores and coming off a year where they gave up sacks on 10% of attempts. WR corps is thin as well. A good offense here but not a great one. Their defense will be far stronger, perhaps the best in the Pac 12. Yet, it's weak link is up front where they will have two new starters both of whom are sophomores. That said, it's a talented and rugged group that produced last year. LBs and DBs are lights out. Petersen is where the variability comes in - If he's what he was at Boise, they compete for the Pac 12 crown. If not, they are a year away IMO.
Oregon: I've been saying for three years, I think Helfrich is not the guy and Ducks will come back to earth. I'd like to stay definitively this will be the season yet their schedule is perhaps the easiest in the Pac 12. I don't think they put together more than a decent OL which will hinder their best in the Pac 12 skill talent at WR and RB. Their defense was awful last year and I don't see any reason to believe it gets more than just incrementally better despite Brady Hoke. I think Helfrich is over his head and it will show up this year yet that schedule will bail him out.
Cal: Bears will have a top 20 OL nationally and as a result a top 3 offense in the Pac 12. We'll see some inconsistency with our WRs but otherwise, think Baylor's ability to reload every year. Our DL is the big question. Average talent and depth at best and Tate as our DL coach isn't making me feel real confident. As the DL goes so go the Bears in 2016. We have enough at LB and DB if we can occupy blockers on run plays and get decent pressure on the QB. I think our depth overall helps in the back half of the schedule and STs will be best in Dykes era so an upset or two against the big boys is likely. Still, expect to see our defense let us down more than a few times
WSU: Hardest team to pick in the Pac 12 for me. I really like the 14 returning starters and I believe their OL is going to be good. I think where it unravels for them this year is their DL. They lost a lot and that group outperformed last year and was the key IMO to their great year. That said, they have found some JC kids and diamonds in the rough on the DL and if 1-2 of those kids blossoms then they could easily win 9 games again. Leach can get it done on offense and no reason to believe they won't be prolific again with the Pac 12s best passing game (great QB and good WR corps). Schedule is helpful as well
Oregon State: Major rebuilding year #2 for Andersen. They are going to improve and and still not win a Pac 12 game (or perhaps they upset Arizona to get one win). OL will be better but how can it not with four returning starters yet the DL will be the Pac 12s worst by a mile. Anderson is a proven defense coach so I expect that early in the year they look decent on offense before attrition and the lack of talent come to roost.
Pac 12 North:
Stanford: 8-1
UW: 6-3
Oregon: 5-4
Cal: 4-5
WSU: 4-5
OSU: 0-9
With than in mind, here are my pre-camp (injuries and more information will come out during camp that may impact these thoughts) musings:
Pac 12 South:
- On paper, this group is well below the North in 2016 yet like the North it's going to be crowded at the top:
UCLA: Hard not to like the Bruins given a ton of returning starters and a very favorable schedule. Their OL is a risk. They have three returning starters of quality coming off a year where their YPC and sack % were very solid. A former starter returns after sitting out last year giving them 4 quality starters. After that, it's a very young and inexperienced group. You here coaches talk about wanting at least 8 or 9 solid OL going into a season, the Bruins have 4. Their DL is going to be a strength IMO with four returning starters and some good athletes. Depth is strong as well. Should be very stout against the run and good albeit not great pass rushing group. Mora is an enigma. He recruits well and for any given game can really motivate his troops. Yet, his teams are inconsistent and uneven. They often time play soft physically or make silly mental errors. I have them as the favorites in the South yet the season IMO hinges on OL health. A single injury there could derail their offense
Utah: Really like the Utes this year. They return four starters (all Sr/Jrs) on the OL with good depth behind them. Going to be far and away the strength of their offense. Their DL is also loaded with three returning starters (all upperclassmen). This is going to be a very tough group to win the LOS against this season. Skill position talent is underrated at RB and WR and they have a strong secondary. Whittingham is rock solid as he proved last year despite a lot of staff turnover. He will have great STs and will grind out close game victories.
USC: Toughest team to pick in the Pac 12. On one hand, you have a top notch OL being built with tremendous talent and now finally good experience as they return all 5 starters and all are upperclassmen. The offensive skill talent is tremendous and QB will not be an issue behind this line with this much skill to work with. The DL is a real problem. Zero returning starters and the four projected starters and 8 of the top 9 will be 1st or 2nd year players. LBs have talent but are young and are likely to get eaten alive behind this young DL. A fantastic secondary is going to be wasted IMO. I have no confidence in Helton. Was shocked at how they played late last year. They beat UCLA behind 3 TOs but otherwise looked awful against Oregon, Stanford and Wisconsin. I think USC outscores some teams but in the end their defense lets them down hard.
Colorado: You heard it here first, Colorado will finish tied or ahead of Arizona and ASU. Could easily make a bowl. 18 returning starters. OL and DL return all but one starter each. Better skill players than people think at RB and WR and in the secondary. MacIntyre has shown he will get the most out of kids and this is BY FAR his best team in Colorado. QB is a massive question mark and if Liufau can't play, the drop off is big. And the overall talent base is not ideal yet I think 5-7 wins is a given and I think you'll see them beat ASU, Arizona and OSU at a minimum in the Pac 12.
Arizona: This team has some upside as Rich Rod always seems to field a good offense and on paper they should be better on defense. The OL brings back 3 starters but was an underperforming group last year and I don't see the quality of depth or talent you want here. They are shifting to a 4-3 and I'm not sure they have the personnel to do it on defense and the scheme will create growing pains as players learn it. Rich Rod was far more overt in his flirtations to leave last offseason than Dykes and that can't help either. I think this group starts the Pac 12 going 0-4 and then it could unwind.
ASU: They are set up to have a very rough year IMO. Media is way overrating them or counting on some Todd Graham magic. Their defense was awful last year and that all out blitzing style has been solved by the Pac 12. They are athletic on defense yet the weak link is the DL. They are completely rebuilding their OL and I don't see the depth or experience to salvage that group into anything better than average. Add in a likely young QB starting and you have issues despite great skill talent. Graham can coach but I wonder if his stubbornness with his defensive system gets in the way? I see another step back year for the Devils.
P12 records:
UCLA 7-2
Utah 6-3
USC 5-4
Colorado 3-6
Arizona 3-6
ASU 3-6
The North:
Stanford: Unfortunately, they are the class of the conference. They aren't rebuilding their OL, they are reloading. 2 returning starters only but the three new starters played A LOT last year and are third year players who have been coached up. Perhaps a notch or two below last years group but still a top 25 OL nationally. People are dissing their defense but I believe it will be better than last years group. The DL features the best DL in the conference in Solomon Thomas. He'll have two HS AAs lined up at DE next to him and a NT who was a certain starter last year before getting hurt next to him. Depth is an issue here. Shaw is the real deal. Steady and methodical. Last year he showed he could evolve from his overly conservative style to his credit. They have the best all purpose back in the country and a backup who is star in waiting. Their secondary is fantastic as well.
UW: I'm less pumped on them than most. I'm just not sold on their OL. Three starters who will be Sophomores and coming off a year where they gave up sacks on 10% of attempts. WR corps is thin as well. A good offense here but not a great one. Their defense will be far stronger, perhaps the best in the Pac 12. Yet, it's weak link is up front where they will have two new starters both of whom are sophomores. That said, it's a talented and rugged group that produced last year. LBs and DBs are lights out. Petersen is where the variability comes in - If he's what he was at Boise, they compete for the Pac 12 crown. If not, they are a year away IMO.
Oregon: I've been saying for three years, I think Helfrich is not the guy and Ducks will come back to earth. I'd like to stay definitively this will be the season yet their schedule is perhaps the easiest in the Pac 12. I don't think they put together more than a decent OL which will hinder their best in the Pac 12 skill talent at WR and RB. Their defense was awful last year and I don't see any reason to believe it gets more than just incrementally better despite Brady Hoke. I think Helfrich is over his head and it will show up this year yet that schedule will bail him out.
Cal: Bears will have a top 20 OL nationally and as a result a top 3 offense in the Pac 12. We'll see some inconsistency with our WRs but otherwise, think Baylor's ability to reload every year. Our DL is the big question. Average talent and depth at best and Tate as our DL coach isn't making me feel real confident. As the DL goes so go the Bears in 2016. We have enough at LB and DB if we can occupy blockers on run plays and get decent pressure on the QB. I think our depth overall helps in the back half of the schedule and STs will be best in Dykes era so an upset or two against the big boys is likely. Still, expect to see our defense let us down more than a few times
WSU: Hardest team to pick in the Pac 12 for me. I really like the 14 returning starters and I believe their OL is going to be good. I think where it unravels for them this year is their DL. They lost a lot and that group outperformed last year and was the key IMO to their great year. That said, they have found some JC kids and diamonds in the rough on the DL and if 1-2 of those kids blossoms then they could easily win 9 games again. Leach can get it done on offense and no reason to believe they won't be prolific again with the Pac 12s best passing game (great QB and good WR corps). Schedule is helpful as well
Oregon State: Major rebuilding year #2 for Andersen. They are going to improve and and still not win a Pac 12 game (or perhaps they upset Arizona to get one win). OL will be better but how can it not with four returning starters yet the DL will be the Pac 12s worst by a mile. Anderson is a proven defense coach so I expect that early in the year they look decent on offense before attrition and the lack of talent come to roost.
Pac 12 North:
Stanford: 8-1
UW: 6-3
Oregon: 5-4
Cal: 4-5
WSU: 4-5
OSU: 0-9
