Hey guys, here is the game hub for the Cal men's basketball's game against San Diego Sate tonight. Game tips off from Vegas at 9:00 PM PST on Fox Sports 1. As is typical with all game hubs, I'm kicking it off with five key things to look for going into this matchup.
#1. San Diego State wins by playing defense: San Diego State has only two players scoring in double figures (Freshman guard Jeremy Hemsley and Junior guard Dakarai Allen). Everybody else on the team is averaging single-digit points per game. In addition, while Cal shoots 48.9% from the field, San Diego State shoots only 42.6% from the field, which is a significant drop off.
So, Cal is without question the more talented offensive team. The question is can San Diego State's defense get the job done? The Aztecs are holding opponents to 34.5% shooting from the field while out-rebounding opponents on average 40.0-33.8. The Aztecs are a very good defensive team and that could give the Golden Bears some trouble.
That being said, Cal holds their opponents to 36.7% shooting from the field and wins the rebounding battle on average 44.2-29.3. So, it's possible that the Aztecs don't have as big of a defense/rebounding advantage as people are saying. Still, that all being said, San Diego State's defense is their calling card and will be what they rely on to win this game.
#2. Cal takes better care of the ball: Cal on average commits 9.5 turnovers per game while San Diego State commits 13.6 turnovers per game. If San Diego State turns the ball over as often as they've been doing or more, that will be a very good thing for the Golden Bears since they thrive on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition.
#3. Both teams get to the line: On average, Cal attempts 29.5 foul shots per game while shooting 72.0% from the line. As for San Diego State, they are averaging 24.4 foul shots per game while shooting 66.4% from the line. So, foul shots will be crucial to this game, but judging by the numbers, the foul shooting department favors Cal. Cal gets to the foul line even more frequently and shoots a substantially higher percentage.
#4. Will San Diego State be as big of a test as everybody thinks? The Vegas line on this game says Cal wins by 4.0 points. I think this is a fair spread and if anything I think Cal should be favored by more. I understand that San Diego State plays great defense and gets to the line, but Cal does as well, only with more offensive weapons. I could see this being a close game, but don't be surprised to see Cal win by double-digits. This San Diego State team isn't even ranked right now. They are 3-2 with a loss to Little Rock. In that loss to Little Rock, they scored just 43 points. If Cal plays as good of defense as they usually do, San Diego State just simply may not have enough offensive weapons to give Cal a scare.
#5. Where will Cal get most of their shots from? This might be the biggest key to the game of all. If Cal settles for a lot of threes and doesn't get in the lane, this could be a very close game. If Cal instead gets to the line, gets in the lane, and finds open shooters within the natural rhythm of the game, then they'll coast to a win. San Diego State knows that East Carolina found success by making Cal take a lot of threes. They'll certainly look to do the same.
Prediction: Cal wins 75-68. Honestly, I expect Cal to win this game fairly handily. They'll beat the spread, but San Diego State will still put up a fight. I think the real advantage Cal has is that they have more offensive weapons and also have an ability to get to the line, play good defense, and attack the glass. Cal appears to be a better version of San Diego State in that they do a lot of the same things well, only with more talent. I don't want to come off like I'm overlooking San Diego State, but upon looking at the stat sheets and comparing rosters, Cal should win this game without it going down to the wire.
#1. San Diego State wins by playing defense: San Diego State has only two players scoring in double figures (Freshman guard Jeremy Hemsley and Junior guard Dakarai Allen). Everybody else on the team is averaging single-digit points per game. In addition, while Cal shoots 48.9% from the field, San Diego State shoots only 42.6% from the field, which is a significant drop off.
So, Cal is without question the more talented offensive team. The question is can San Diego State's defense get the job done? The Aztecs are holding opponents to 34.5% shooting from the field while out-rebounding opponents on average 40.0-33.8. The Aztecs are a very good defensive team and that could give the Golden Bears some trouble.
That being said, Cal holds their opponents to 36.7% shooting from the field and wins the rebounding battle on average 44.2-29.3. So, it's possible that the Aztecs don't have as big of a defense/rebounding advantage as people are saying. Still, that all being said, San Diego State's defense is their calling card and will be what they rely on to win this game.
#2. Cal takes better care of the ball: Cal on average commits 9.5 turnovers per game while San Diego State commits 13.6 turnovers per game. If San Diego State turns the ball over as often as they've been doing or more, that will be a very good thing for the Golden Bears since they thrive on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition.
#3. Both teams get to the line: On average, Cal attempts 29.5 foul shots per game while shooting 72.0% from the line. As for San Diego State, they are averaging 24.4 foul shots per game while shooting 66.4% from the line. So, foul shots will be crucial to this game, but judging by the numbers, the foul shooting department favors Cal. Cal gets to the foul line even more frequently and shoots a substantially higher percentage.
#4. Will San Diego State be as big of a test as everybody thinks? The Vegas line on this game says Cal wins by 4.0 points. I think this is a fair spread and if anything I think Cal should be favored by more. I understand that San Diego State plays great defense and gets to the line, but Cal does as well, only with more offensive weapons. I could see this being a close game, but don't be surprised to see Cal win by double-digits. This San Diego State team isn't even ranked right now. They are 3-2 with a loss to Little Rock. In that loss to Little Rock, they scored just 43 points. If Cal plays as good of defense as they usually do, San Diego State just simply may not have enough offensive weapons to give Cal a scare.
#5. Where will Cal get most of their shots from? This might be the biggest key to the game of all. If Cal settles for a lot of threes and doesn't get in the lane, this could be a very close game. If Cal instead gets to the line, gets in the lane, and finds open shooters within the natural rhythm of the game, then they'll coast to a win. San Diego State knows that East Carolina found success by making Cal take a lot of threes. They'll certainly look to do the same.
Prediction: Cal wins 75-68. Honestly, I expect Cal to win this game fairly handily. They'll beat the spread, but San Diego State will still put up a fight. I think the real advantage Cal has is that they have more offensive weapons and also have an ability to get to the line, play good defense, and attack the glass. Cal appears to be a better version of San Diego State in that they do a lot of the same things well, only with more talent. I don't want to come off like I'm overlooking San Diego State, but upon looking at the stat sheets and comparing rosters, Cal should win this game without it going down to the wire.
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