Let me start off with two things, what I think is going to happen with the QB position this week and my opinion before I get into the numbers.
What I think happens at QB this week: McIlwain starts because he brings an explosive capability to the offense that no one else can really replicate at the moment. He has as many yards on designed runs as Patrick Laird does (in 39 less attempts). There's a belief that the turnovers can be cut down with better execution as McIlwain grows as a QB and as the offense fixes the mistakes that doomed them a week ago.
My opinion: Play them both. Statistically, they aren't all that different (even in the run game, which was a bit surprising to me). Garbers is the better deep ball thrower but avoids intermediate throws like the plague, whereas McIlwain isn't afraid of getting yards in the intermediate game. McIlwain's better than Garbers under pressure, but can put too much air under some of his passes (something Garbers has done as well, but still). Not every turnover that both have been credited for has been their fault, but they both have to be cognizant of their mistakes as young QBs. Honestly, it feels a bit like last year, where Bowers turned the ball over a ton against USC and Oregon. Week 7 against Wazzu was when that turned around. It's week 7 now.
Anyhow, into some stats, and something I'm gonna try to turn into a longer analysis piece by looking at more data than what PFF provides.
Basics:
Garbers: 178 reps (103 passing, 75 runs)
McIlwain: 179 reps (104 passing, 75 runs)
Funny how well that worked out
Garbers passing: 49-75, 493 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs (6.6 YPA), 25 first downs
McIlwain Passing 54-81, 542 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs (6.7 YPA), 27 first downs
Garbers Running: 28 attempts (14 designed, 14 scrambles), 173 yards (6.2 yards per rush), sacked six times, three fumbles (none lost), 10 first downs gained, 6 runs of 10+ yards
McIlwain running: 55 attempts (41 designed, 14 scrambles), 382 yards, (6.9 yards per rush), 4 TDs, sacked three times, five fumbles (two lost), 17 first downs gained, 13 runs of 10+ yards
It's funny how despite maybe a disparity in running touches, the numbers aren't too far apart. Each of them completes around two-thirds of their passes respectively. Each of them gets around 6-7 yards per carry. They're turnover prone, as the interception numbers work out about the same, and Garbers has actually fumbled a little more frequently than McIlwain (although not losing a fumble makes his reputation seem a little better in that regard)
There's a couple differences in their passing chart as mentioned above, as over a quarter of McIlwain's passes are intermediate (from 10 to 20 yards downfield) throws (22 out of 81), whereas has thrown 7 passes in the intermediate level, going 1 of 7 for 12 yards and an INT. Mc is 12-22 for 179 yards and 4 INTs, which admittedly doesn't look much better. Garbers has the edge in passes over 20 yards, going 10-18 for 257 yards, 5 TDs and 3 INTs. McIlwain is 3-8 for 113 yards on those.
On shorter passes (0-10 yds downfield), they're about even, (Mc 29-38 for 200 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, Garb 24-30 for 153 yards, 1 TD).
Again, I think it's relatively even statistically, but the impact of the turnovers made by McIlwain outweigh the ones made by Garbers in everyone's mind because four of them have gone for points the other way. I'd pin two of those on him, but if they're going to play him more, it's based on potential of explosive plays, which he's made plenty of on his own. They're not afraid to pull him if the turnovers continue, which is something they've signaled. There's a bit of deeper dive to be done here with whoever averages more yards per play, but I have a feeling that would come out even as well.
Let me know what your thoughts are
What I think happens at QB this week: McIlwain starts because he brings an explosive capability to the offense that no one else can really replicate at the moment. He has as many yards on designed runs as Patrick Laird does (in 39 less attempts). There's a belief that the turnovers can be cut down with better execution as McIlwain grows as a QB and as the offense fixes the mistakes that doomed them a week ago.
My opinion: Play them both. Statistically, they aren't all that different (even in the run game, which was a bit surprising to me). Garbers is the better deep ball thrower but avoids intermediate throws like the plague, whereas McIlwain isn't afraid of getting yards in the intermediate game. McIlwain's better than Garbers under pressure, but can put too much air under some of his passes (something Garbers has done as well, but still). Not every turnover that both have been credited for has been their fault, but they both have to be cognizant of their mistakes as young QBs. Honestly, it feels a bit like last year, where Bowers turned the ball over a ton against USC and Oregon. Week 7 against Wazzu was when that turned around. It's week 7 now.
Anyhow, into some stats, and something I'm gonna try to turn into a longer analysis piece by looking at more data than what PFF provides.
Basics:
Garbers: 178 reps (103 passing, 75 runs)
McIlwain: 179 reps (104 passing, 75 runs)
Funny how well that worked out
Garbers passing: 49-75, 493 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs (6.6 YPA), 25 first downs
McIlwain Passing 54-81, 542 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs (6.7 YPA), 27 first downs
Garbers Running: 28 attempts (14 designed, 14 scrambles), 173 yards (6.2 yards per rush), sacked six times, three fumbles (none lost), 10 first downs gained, 6 runs of 10+ yards
McIlwain running: 55 attempts (41 designed, 14 scrambles), 382 yards, (6.9 yards per rush), 4 TDs, sacked three times, five fumbles (two lost), 17 first downs gained, 13 runs of 10+ yards
It's funny how despite maybe a disparity in running touches, the numbers aren't too far apart. Each of them completes around two-thirds of their passes respectively. Each of them gets around 6-7 yards per carry. They're turnover prone, as the interception numbers work out about the same, and Garbers has actually fumbled a little more frequently than McIlwain (although not losing a fumble makes his reputation seem a little better in that regard)
There's a couple differences in their passing chart as mentioned above, as over a quarter of McIlwain's passes are intermediate (from 10 to 20 yards downfield) throws (22 out of 81), whereas has thrown 7 passes in the intermediate level, going 1 of 7 for 12 yards and an INT. Mc is 12-22 for 179 yards and 4 INTs, which admittedly doesn't look much better. Garbers has the edge in passes over 20 yards, going 10-18 for 257 yards, 5 TDs and 3 INTs. McIlwain is 3-8 for 113 yards on those.
On shorter passes (0-10 yds downfield), they're about even, (Mc 29-38 for 200 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, Garb 24-30 for 153 yards, 1 TD).
Again, I think it's relatively even statistically, but the impact of the turnovers made by McIlwain outweigh the ones made by Garbers in everyone's mind because four of them have gone for points the other way. I'd pin two of those on him, but if they're going to play him more, it's based on potential of explosive plays, which he's made plenty of on his own. They're not afraid to pull him if the turnovers continue, which is something they've signaled. There's a bit of deeper dive to be done here with whoever averages more yards per play, but I have a feeling that would come out even as well.
Let me know what your thoughts are
